Title: FAA Center of Excellence for General Aviation Research
1FAA Center of Excellence for General Aviation
Research
A Look Ahead
June 4, 2008
Yuri GawdiakDirector Systems Modeling Analysis
DivisionJoint Planning Development Office
(JPDO)
2NextGen Challenge
- Current System is Not Performing Adequately
- Current System is Not Scalable
- NextGen Plan Offers a Transformation Approach to
Resolving Current Inadequacies - Cost of not moving to NextGen is prohibitive
3(No Transcript)
4Air Traffic Management Transformation
5Relative Influence of ANSP and Aircraft/Pilot ATM
Decisions
6Enterprise Architecture Alignment
7NextGen Capabilities
- Provide Effective Information Environment
- Provide Integrated Regulatory Risk Management
- Provide Collaborative Capacity Management
- Provide Collaborative Flow Contingency Management
- Provide Efficient Trajectory Management
- Provide Flexible Separation Management
- Provide Flexible Airport Facility Surface
Operations
8SMAD Integrated Modeling and Analysis Process
DemandModeling(Sensis, LaRC, VaTech)
Security/Economics (GRA)
Determine Feasible Future Demand
Physics-Based Airport/Airspace Analysis
LMINET (LMI)
Airport/Airspace Queuing Model
Environmental Modeling (Metron)
ACES (Sensis, ARC)
Wx modeling
IndividualRunwayModeling(Boeing, LMI)
NAS Strategy Simulator (Ventana)
NGATS Airport Capacities
Probabilistic Wx And TFM Tool (Sensis)
NAS Economics
9High Density Case StudySimulation Approach
JPDO Enterprise Architecture
1
Technology Trade Space
By-Pass Alternatives (based on OIs)
m2
f1
3
2
Manage Alternatives (based on OIs)
f2
b2
m1
Risk
Fix Alternatives (based on OIs)
b1
Time
0
4
Benefit
Full Portfolio Trade Space
Updated JPDO Enterprise Architecture
Policy/Key Decision Models
m2
f1
5
6
Dec. 4
Dec. 1
m1
Dec. 5
Dec. 2
b1
Risk
Dec. 6
Dec. 3
Dec. n
Time
0
Benefit
10Top Policy IssuesStrategic Decisions Challenges
- Culture/Roles Transition
- Infrastructure Upgrades
- Consolidation Realignment
- Interoperability/Equipage
- Research Deployment Bandwidth.
- Safety Security
- Budget Alignment/Stability
- Rules of the Road
- Environment Management
- Federal Roles in Airport Capacity
Will use this information to simulate adjust
Portfolio Results of the HD Alternatives
Subject Matter Based Estimates
11Draft Stakeholder Performance Metrics Matrix
Stakeholders
12Future Scenario Challenges
Billions of Runs
Millions of Runs
Thousands of Runs
Hundreds of Runs
JPDO Full Lifecycle Evaluations out to 2040
13System Modeling Challenges
Complex Terminal Surface Operations
Safety/Security Risk Exposure
Productivity/Inefficiencies
Policy Dynamics
System-wide Technology Effects (Situational
Awareness/Data Quality)
Collaboration Behaviors Market/Fleet Strategies
14Backup
15Notional Example
Goal 1
Goal 2
Goal 3
Goal 4
Goal N
Goals Objectives
Capacity
Safety
Security
Environmental Impact
Efficiency / Economy
Capability / Performance Areas
Projects Programs
Current Material Non-Material Investments
JPDO Partner Investment Portfolios
Future / Proposed Investments
FAA
DOT
NASA
DOD
DHS
DOC
Cost XX Time XX Risk XX Benefit XX
Cost XX Benefit XX Resource XX
Alternative 1
Alternative 2
Alternative Attributes
Costs
Time
Risk
Benefit
Resources
JPDO PMD, SMAD, and EAED Policy Analysis
Alignment
NextGen Work Products
Assessment
Assessment identifies alternatives and gaps to be
filled by needed material/nonmaterial investments
16Relative Influence of ANSP and Aircraft/Pilot ATM
Decisions