East of England Freight Scoping Study

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East of EnglandFreight Scoping Study
Presentation to East of England Regional Planning
Panel of Key Study Findings


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East of England Freight Scoping Study

• Commissioned in August 2005 by EEDA
• Steering Group members EEDA, EERA, GO-East, HA
  and Network Rail
• MDS Transmodal Lead consultant. In partnership
  with
• Savills Commercial property market
• Regeneris Consulting Economy and labour market
• Study brief
• Establish an understanding of freight movements
  in the East of England, and the role of freight
  in the regional economy
• Quantify levels of freight movements by all modes
• Identify the critical issues and freight
  congestion hot spots
• Forecast future freight flows and examine key
  future trends
• Produced Stage 1 and Stage 2 written reports

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Freight by Road Transport
Source MDS Transmodal GBFM
4
Source MDS Transmodal GBFM
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Rail Freight Traffic Volumes in East of England
Source MDS Transmodal GBFM
6
Source Working Timetable
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Ports Traffic Volumes at Major Ports
Source Maritime Statistics

• Harwich Haven Maritime containers (deep sea)
  and roll-on roll-off
• Ipswich Roll-on roll-off, agricultural products
  and forestry products
• Thames Maritime containers, roll-on roll-off,
  liquid bulk and forestry products
• Important flows via smaller ports in region e.g.
  Kings Lynn regional hinterland

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Ports Maritime Containers
Includes Dartford SE Region

• National growth 46 between 1994 and 2004
• Far East 9 (cagr)
• Rail 22 market share inland transport
• High market share to Midlands, North West,
  Yorkshire and Scotland

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Airfreight
Source CAA

• Stansted
• third largest handler of airfreight cargo
• Dominated by express service providers e.g. TNT

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Location of Major Distribution Centres
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Future Key Issues Major Port Developments

• National need for major deep sea container
  terminals
• Forecast continual growth in deep sea containers
• Major ports approaching capacity

SourceMDS Transmodal GBFM

• All three proposed deep sea container port
  schemes in East of England region
• Enhances gateway role of the region
• Inland transport implications for region,
  particularly rail freight

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Future Key Issues Major Port Developments

• Felixstowe South Planning consent following
  public inquiry
• 1,350m length when completed additional 800m
• Harwich International Port Container Terminal
  (Bathside Bay) Planning consent following
  public inquiry
• New deep sea container port with 1,400m of quay
  at Bathside Bay, Harwich
• New Intermodal rail terminal
• London Gateway (Shellhaven) Minded to approve
• New deep sea container quay 2,300m length at
  Shellhaven
• New intermodal rail terminal
• Resolution of road access capacity issues
• Great Yarmouth Outer Harbour
• New outer harbour, include RoRo berth
• Contribution of 8.75 million from EEDA

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New Container Ports Inland Transport
Implications

• Felixstowe South Handle an additional 520,000
  containers per year
• Bathside Bay Handle 1 million containers per
  year when fully developed
• London Gateway Handle 1.6 million containers
  per year
• From Haven An additional 1.5 million containers
  per year
• At existing 22.5 rail market share Additional
  22 trains per day per direction (equates to 1,750
  HGVs)
• At higher 30 rail market share Additional 33
  trains per day per direction (equates to 2,600
  HGVs)
• Spatial Strategy, policy and investment
  implications
• Inability to provide for additional rail capacity
• Containers moved by road
• Greatest impact on A14

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Future Key Issues Rail Freight

• Need for sufficient freight capacity on railway
  network to serve Haven and Thames as intermodal
  rail volumes will increase
• Identified key locations with capacity issues
  ECML (Welwyn, 2/3 track sections north and south
  of Peterborough) Ipswich to Peterborough,
  Crossrail and North London Line
• Increasing numbers of 96 maritime containers
  Need for W9/W10 cleared routes to move 96
  containers by rail efficiently
• GEML and NNL route to WCML gauge cleared to W10
  in 2005
• Hutchinson Ports committed to funding W10 to
  Yorkshire terminals via Ely and ECML as part of
  Felixstowe South and Bathside Bay schemes
• Need for the Peterborough-Nuneaton gauge
  clearance to accommodate growth and provide
  diversionary routes
• Without sufficient loading gauge, containers move
  by road
• Additional traffic on A14
• Spatial Strategy, policy and investment
  implications

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Future Key Issues Road Freight Transport

• Journey time reliability a key issue just in
  time deliveries
• Considered report undertaken for Highway Agency
  by Faber Maunsell
• Examined highway performance under a number of
  different forecast scenarios
• Volume/capacity ratio
• Important forecast to be operating at or above
  100 volume/capacity
• Distance based road charging
• Better highway management
• Spatial Strategy, policy and investment
  implications

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Forecast Volume/Capacity Ratio 2021
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Freight Forecasts 2021

• 4 forecasts under different scenarios (2 x 2015
  and 2 x 2021)
• Includes general freight growth and impact of
  major freight developments
• Outputs Demand on basis of unconstrained
  capacity
• Scenario 3 Bathside Bay and Alconbury built and
  operating (not London Gateway)
• Scenario 4 Bathside Bay, London Gateway and
  Alconbury built and operating

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• Freight Forecasts 2021 Rail Freight Demand
• Scenario 3
• Total daily freight train demand (both
  directions)

Source MDS Transmodal GBFM
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• Implications of Forecasts Rail Demand and
  Freight Path Supply
• Negative figure 2021 path demand in excess of
  2005 path supply

Source MDS Transmodal GBFM and Working Timetable
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• Freight Forecasts 2021 Forecast Annual HGVs

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Forecast Volume/Capacity Ratio 2021
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Capacity Constrained Highway Impact

• Additional 345,000 HGVs per annum on A14
• Environmental cost 31.4million per annum NPV
  285 million up to 2035

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Future Key Issues Airfreight

• Stansted Dominated by express service providers
  e.g. TNT
• Express airfreight fastest growing sector of
  airfreight market
• Growing volumes at Stansted
• Key requirement of express airfreight ability
  to fly at night
• Need to maintain night time slots at Stansted
• Need for transit shed capacity close to airports
• Airfreight forecasts to 2030
• 1.6 to 2.3 million tonnes at Stansted
• Future of Air Transport White paper documents
• Need for additional transit shed capacity at
  Stansted
• 50,000 to 76,000 sq m of additional shed capacity
• Spatial Strategy and policy implications

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Conclusions Towards a Strategy

• Important policy and investment implications for
  regional and national Government
• Recent planning decisions increase in freight
  passing through region
• Policy need to move greater volumes of goods by
  rail
• Market demand for additional rail services
• Number of issues on railway network in region
• Available capacity
• Loading gauge
• Increase in road freight volumes
• East of England Plan implications (EERA)
• Need for joined up Government (Go-East)
• Need for future investment (EEDA, HA, Network
  Rail)