Real-time system

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Real-time system
Expert Team on Operational Ocean Forecast Systems
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An opportunity to determine the best way forward
for OOFS
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An opportunity to determine the best way forward
for OOFS OOFS requires continuous development
path to reach the quality of services users
require Consolidation and transition maturing
GODAE systems to full operation
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• Proposed linkage to GOV-ST
• Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to
  contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities
• ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to
  stakeholders and international forum
• ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on
  matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to
  either group
• TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of
  tasks from both groups
• An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TTs to
  lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

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Background Ocean forecasting requires integration
within JCOMM SPA is tasked with coordinating
integration of services Expert teams are how SPA
achieves its goals SPA proposed the formation of
ET-OOFS, Dec 2007 Objective transition mature
GODAE systems full operation JCOMM-MAN approved
the proposal ET-OOFS has been formed to carry out
the ToR ET is under SPA and is Service focused
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Staying focused It will not be productive to
debate the formation of ET-OOFS It is critical
that ET-OOFS not be obstructed in achieving its
ToR. GOV-ST need to be unanimous in support for
ET-OOFS It will be critical that all members of
ET-OOFS and GOV-ST provide a unified position to
the stakeholders and wider community These groups
must complement and not be engaged in a
competition Debate for how best to serve the
stakeholders for ocean forecasting services will
occur leading up to JCOMM-IV
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GODAE is familiar having a 10 year
history ET-OOFS is new and a possible source of
confusion Propose that we focus on Clarify
JCOMM/SPA/ET structure Determine how GOV-ST can
support ET-OOFS Propose clarification to the
roles and responsibilities Propose a joint way
forward for OO Note ET-OOFS will meet post GOV-ST
to discuss the proposal
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Joint WMO-IOC technical commission for
Oceanography and Marine Meteorology

• Key themes
• coordination, regulation and management
• fully integrated observing, data management and
  service systems
• responsive to interdisciplinary user needs
• outreach and capacity building
• improved products for MSS, MAES, SI (WMO)

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Family tree not static, preparing for JCOMMIII
IOC
WMO
JCOMM-MAN
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SPA
OPA
ETOOFS
ETWS
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Services Programme Area
Facilitate the development and application of
globally distributed marine meteorological and
oceanographics services Achieved in partnership
with the user community and other programme
areas SPA is oriented towards forecasting
products and associated services, user
interaction and feedback
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Expert teams Goal Improve the quality of
services provided by the agencies of member
states in their respective theme Types of
Objectives Develop guidance for operational
agencies to encourage adoption of best practices
and standards for services across
agencies Develop and maintain requirements
documentation for operational systems Monitor and
evaluate effectiveness of services Coordinate
actions to address identified deficiencies in
services
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ET-OOFS Current ToR under review for JCOMMIII
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ET-OOFS TOR - overview
The guide to operational ocean forecasting WMO
requires the development of guides for
operational agencies who intend to support
services. ETs develop these guides. Provide
guidance to teams on the application,
nomenclature, symbology and standards used by
OOFS few standards exist for presenting
forecast information, symbols used or guidance on
application of products. ET-OOFS will seek to
coordinate the development and adoption of such
standards.
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ET-OOFS TOR - overview
Develop and operate an inter-comparison framework
for NRT monitoring of OOFS ET-OOFS will work
with the community to transfer mature
inter-comparison metrics and observation metrics
developed under GODAE and GODAE OceanView and
maintain the set of metrics to be performed and
reported by each operational system. ET-OOFS will
report in real-time and in summary on these
metrics. Work effectively with the science
community developing OOFS ET-OOFS will attend
GOV-ST and present on its activities and
proposals. ET-OOFS will seek coordination with
GOV-ST. It is proposed that Task teams OSE and
Inter-comparison be joint TTs
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ET-OOFS TOR - overview
Provide observation requirements for OOFS to OPA
ET-OOFS will maintain the OOFS statement of
guidance. ET-OOFS will review requirements of
existing systems and new systems. Provide advice
to JCOMM DMPA ET-OOFS will coordinate the
transition of data management infrastructure
developed under GODAE into JCOMM DMPA. Provide
advice to Members/Member states on OOFS ET-OOFS
will respond to WMO/IOC/JCOMM etc on OOFS related
matters.
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Current
Current members Gary Brassington (Chair),
Bureau of Meteorology Jim Cummings, US
Navy Eric Dombrowsky, Mercator Ming Ji,
NOAA/NCEP Adrian Hines, UKMetOffice
Masafumi Kamachi, MRI, Japan Fraser
Davidson, DFO-NAFC, Canada Secretariat and
JCOMM Albert Fisher, IOC Alice Soares,
WMO Peter Dexter, Co-president
JCOMM Craig Donlon Services Program
Area Bob Keeley, Data Management Program
Area Candyce Clark, Observation Program Area
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ET-OOFS specific tasks
The guide to operational ocean forecasting
systems Adrian Hines Monitoring of operational
systems Jim Cummings / Gary Brassington /
Masafumi Kamachi Ocean services Ming Ji /
Fraser Davidson Pilot task team data management
Frederique Blanc Observational requirements
Gary Brassington Develop workplan under JCOMM3
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Proposed
ET-OFS proposed membership
Task members 1 member(chair) - Intergovernmental
coordination, communication and
reporting 1 member research requirements
(connection GOV etc) 1 member observational
requirements (connection OPA, GSSC etc.) 1 member
guide and nomenclature documentation 1 member
operational system status and monitoring 1
member service status agency requirements
(connection agency) 1 member - user community
liaison coordinator (benefit/performance) 1
member outreach and capacity building 1 member
Data management and operations
infrastructure 1 member MAES system
integration 1 member - SI system integration (A
vice chair selected by the chair from the task
members)
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ET-OFS - membership
Special interest members 1 member MSS system
development GOV chairs (officio) 1 member -
CAS/WGNE Open members MyOcean and
US-IOOS Operational agencies supporting
operational ocean prediction systems Operational
agencies developing ocean forecasting
systems Regional alliances companion service
groups (IO-GOOS, etc)
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Statement of Guidance demonstration of ET-OOFS
role
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(No Transcript)
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Observations Programme Area Coordination Group
http//www.jcomm.info/ocg3
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• Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-OSE
• Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and
  recommend observational requirements
• Prepare recommendations based on evidence of
  cost effective metrics for operational monitoring
  of operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and
  include in the The guide as part of the
  operational monitoring system
• Prepare a report on specific metrics for ET-OOFS
  to submit to the next RRR process and contribute
  to the Statement of Guidance
• Developing the cost vs benefit case. Feedback on
  what the TT can deliver to this process.

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• Proposed ET-OOFS tasks for TT-Intercomparison
• Identify deficiencies in OOFS performance and
  recommend system changes
• Prepare recommendations of mature and cost
  efficient metrics for operational monitoring of
  operational systems. ET-OOFS to review and
  include in the The guide as part of the
  operational monitoring system
• Adapt existing metrics to standards for
  transition to
• Adapt frameworks to standards to facilitate
  transition of future metrics to operations

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• Proposed linkage to GOV-ST
• Members of GOV-ST be encouraged to
  contribute/respond to ET-OOFS related activities
• ET-OOFS and GOV-ST to be jointly presented to
  stakeholders and international forum
• ET-OOFS and GOV-ST maintain communication on
  matters relating to OOFS of potential interest to
  either group
• TT-OSE, TT-Inter-comparison have a joint set of
  tasks from both groups
• An ET-OOFS member be a member of the TTs to
  lead the ET-OOFS tasks within the TT

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• Practical matters
• ET-OOFS/GOV-ST to conduct joint meetings
• Membership overlaps
• Joint day for national reporting

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Joint statement
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What is a quality service understanding user
applications
What is the performance threshold? i.e., the
minimum performance that delivers impact What is
a success / failure? What is the value of
success / cost of failure? e.g., Life or
property saved / lost, litigious
implications What proportion can the service
contribute to the outcomes? Sophistication /
experience of the users systems e.g., tolerance
of bad information, multiple information
sources Predictability of the dependent
products Time time critical, forecast
horizon Space region, resolution
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Feedback internal and external Mixed response
to formation of a new group ET-OOFS is required
by JCOMM If forced to The clear alternative is
for GODAE OceanView to become ET-OOFS under
SPA Feedback is that GODAE OceanView wants to
remain RD focused and limit the
inter-governmental process Two groups appears to
be the right way forward for this next period of
OOFS. Research focused group and a service
focused group.
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The RRR process
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Who can help with these problems ?
SPA/ET-OOFS GOV Agencies
SPA/ET-OOFS Agencies User groups
SPA/ET-OOFS Agencies
OPAGSSCManufacturers Operators
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Operational performance in practice
Performance target
NWP surface fluxes, model error growth
Optimum performance curve
Ocean predictability limits
Observation coverage, Observation error,
Automatic QC, Analysis optimisation
Initialisation, Observation timeliness,