Managing food chain risks: the role of uncertainty

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Managing food chain risks the role of uncertainty

• Richard Shepherd
• University of Surrey

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Project partners
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Uncertainty

• There are known knowns
• there are things that we know that we know
• There are known unknowns
• that is to say, there are things that we now know
  we don't know
• But there are also unknown unknowns
• there are things we do not know we don't know
• And each year we discover a few more of those
  unknown unknowns
• Donald Rumsfeld, US Secretary of Defense

Winner of Plain English Campaign Foot in Mouth
Award 2003
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Cynefin model of decision contexts
Knowable Cause and effect can be determined with
sufficient data The realm of scientific inquiry
Chaotic Cause and effect not discernable
Known Cause and effect understood and
predictable The realm of scientific knowledge
Snowden (2002)
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Need to communicate uncertainty

• Need for
• Transparency
• Openness
• If uncertainty subsequently found it will lead to
  problems of credibility
• the need to be open about uncertainty and to
  make the level of uncertainty clear when
  communicating with the public
• HM Government Response to the BSE Inquiry (2001)

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Presenting uncertainty to the public

• Admission of uncertainty (Johnson and Slovic,
  1995)
• More honest
• Less competent
• Public preferences (Frewer et al. 2002)
• Public want information on uncertainty
• More accepting of uncertainty when due to
  scientific process than lack of interest or
  action by government

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Project objectives

• Develop interactive web-enabled tools for
  quantitative assessment of risks and uncertainty
• Use participatory methods to ensure web-enabled
  tools, etc. appropriate for stakeholders
• Develop methods to predict consumer behaviour
  driven by perceptions of risk and uncertainty
• Develop improved methods for communicating with
  stakeholders
• Test, evaluate and demonstrate improved
  approaches in case studies of food contamination
  and microbiological hazards

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Modules within the project
Models, systems and processes designed and
validated with respect to
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Participatory processes

• Participatory methods
• Stakeholder workshops
• Citizens juries
• Focus groups
• Scenarios to stimulate discussion
• Runs throughout project to
• Inform initial developments and ensure processes
  and web-enabled tools appropriate for
  stakeholders
• Test in case studies

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Dietary risk modelling

• Develop web-based tools based on CSL
  probabilistic tool
• Probabilistic methods of risk assessment
• Take account of variability and uncertainty
• Usually aimed at specialists
• Hierarchical 2D Monte Carlo to quantify
  uncertainties
• Expand to include
• Other contaminants and pathogens
• Long term exposures
• Suitable for non-technical users
• What if tools

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Modular food chain models

• Managing risk across the food chain
• Modularisation of food chain
• Production, processing, storage, consumption
• Dependencies across the chain - concentrations of
  agent a function of
• Control measures
• Performance criteria
• Build set of uncertainty distributions

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Predicting changes in consumer behaviour

• Impact on consumer behaviour of communication and
  management actions
• Issues addressed
• Risk information v direct recommendation
• Personal relevance of information
• Presentation of uncertainty
• Numerical/verbal presentation of uncertainty
• Predict consumer behaviour changes

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Communication and decision support interfaces

• Communication dependent on how different actors
  understand and think about risk
• Mental models
• Social representations
• Test using scenarios

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Case studies

• Chemical - pesticide
• Data available
• Amenable to probabilistic modelling
• Microbiological - cross contamination with
  campylobacter
• Undercooked chicken
• Mainly caused by cross contamination
• Scenario with unanticipated risk
• Hypothetical scenarios
• Rapid response

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Key audiences

• Natural and social scientists
• Stakeholders throughout the food chain
• Producers
• Manufacturers
• Risk managers and regulators
• General public(s)
• Communication through
• Dissemination activities
• Stakeholder workshops

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Concluding comments

• Interdisciplinary research
• Natural sciences
• Social sciences
• Quantitative assessment and modelling of risks
  and uncertainty across the food chain
• Stakeholder involvement and participatory
  processes
• Effective communication with the public and
  stakeholders