Southern Timber Supply: Surfeit or Scarcity

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Southern Timber SupplySurfeit or Scarcity?

• Fred Cubbage, Robert Abt,
• Jacek Siry, and SoEun Ahn
• Department of Forestry
• North Carolina State University

Paper presented at the Southern Forest Science
Meeting November 26-28, 2001, Atlanta, GA
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Outline

• World Forests and Plantations
• U.S.D.A. Forest Service RPA Data
• Forest Resource Statistics, 1997
• Timber Assessment Projections, 1995-2040
• NCSU Subregional Timber Supply Model
• Southern Projections, 1995-2040
• State and Survey Unit Distribution and Trends
• Policy constraints
• Conclusions

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Total World Forest AreaBy Region, 2000 (million
hectares)
FAO 2001 3.9 billion ha total
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Total Forest AreaFor Major Countries, 1995
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Tree Plantations

• Tree plantations
• Artificially created/one or few species/
• High yield
• 230 million ha (6.7 of forests)
• Industrial plantations
• Industrial roundwood production
• 210 million ha (6.1 of forests)
• Fast grown industrial plantations
• Growth gt 5 cu m/ha/yr rotation lt 30 years
• 40 million ha (1.2 of forests)

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Fast-GrownIndustrial Plantation Area
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Timberland Area in the U.S.by Region, 1997
(million acres)
504 MM ac 201 S 159 N 71 M 72 W Forest
Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 9
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Softwood Growing Stock Inventoryby Region, 1997
484 Billion cu ft 105 S 49 N 114 M 215
W Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 17
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Annual Removals of Softwood Growing Stock Volume
by Region, 1996
10.1 Billion cu ft 6.5 S 0.7 N 0.5 M 2.4
W Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 35
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Hardwood Growing Stock Inventory by Region, 1997
351Billion cu ft 151S 165 N 11 M 24 W Forest
Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 17
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Annual Removals of Hardwood Growing Stock Volume
by Region, 1996
5.96 Billion cu ft 3.7S 2.1 N 0.0 M 0.1
W Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 35
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Softwood Growing Stock Inventoryby Owner, 1997
484 Billion cu ft 144 NIPF 66 Industry 51
Other Public 222 NFS Forest Resources of the
U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 18
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Annual Removals of Softwood Growing Stock Volume
by Owner, 1996
10.1 Billion cu ft 5.2 NIPF 3.7 Industry 0.6
Other Public 0.6 NFS Forest Resources of the
U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 35
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Hardwood Growing Stock Inventory by Owner, 1997
352Billion cu ft 252 NIPF 34 Industry 36 Other
Public 30 National Forests Forest Resources of
the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 23
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Annual Removals of Hardwood Growing Stock Volume
by Owner, 1996
5.96 Billion cu ft 4.3 NIPF 1.0 Industry 0.4
Other Public 0.2 NFS Forest Resources of the
U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 35
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Timberland Areas By Ownership and Region, 1997
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 9
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Area of Natural and Planted Forests, 1997
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 8
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Southern Planted Forest Species Area by
Ownership Type, 1997
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 8
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Forest Areas By Rural-Urban Continuum Class, 1997
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 7
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Average Annual Growth Per Acreby Owner Group,
1962-1996
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Figure 31
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Harvest of Roundwood Products in the South by
Species Group, 1996
Forest Resources of the U.S., 2001 RPA, Table 39
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U.S. Softwood Roundwood Harvests, Consumption,
Imports, and Exports to 2030
RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table 3-5
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U.S. Hardwood Roundwood Harvests, Consumption,
Imports, and Exports to 2030
RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table 3-5
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U.S. Pulp Wood Fiber Supply, Historical and
Projected
RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table 3-1
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U.S. Softwood Lumber Production by Region with
Projections to 2030
34.6 BCF in 1986 44.1 BCF in 2030 RPA Timber
Assessment 2001, Table App 3-2
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U.S. Hardwood Lumber Production by Region with
Projections to 2030
9.2BCF in 1986 14.7 BCF in 2020 RPA Timber
Assessment 2001, Table App 3-3
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U.S. Structural Panel Consumption by Panel Type,
with Projections to 2030
RPA Timber Assessment 2001, Table App 3-4
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RPA Softwood and Hardwood Private Timber
Inventory for the South
RPA Timber Assessment Draft, November 2001
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RPA Private Softwood Net Annual Growth and
Removals for the South
RPA Timber Assessment Draft, November 2001
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RPA Private Hardwood Net Annual Growth and
Removals for the South
RPA Timber Assessment Draft, November 2001
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NC State Subregional Timber Supply (SRTS)
Economic Model

• Stumpage supply depends on
• stumpage price
• inventory
• Stumpage demand depends on
• stumpage price
• demand shifters
• One market - one price

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SRTS Model Projections, 2001

• Projections of southern timber supply
• Private lands projected from 1990 to 2040
• Pine growth up 50 for industry 25 other
• Hardwood at historical growth rates
• Projections for
• inventory, growth, and removals trends
• harvest shifts between owners/states and survey
  units/management types
• price trends

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Parameters
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SRTS Southern Softwood and Hardwood Private
Timber Inventory, 1995-2040
Fall 2001
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SRTS Southern Private SoftwoodGrowth and
Removals, 1995-2040
Fall 2001
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SRTS Southern Private HardwoodGrowth and
Removals, 1995-2040
Fall 2001
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SRTS Softwood Market TrendsInelastic Demand,
High Softwood Growth Rates
Spring 2001
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SRTS Southern Softwood Inventory, Growth, and
Removals
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SRTS-Base SW Harvest 1995-2040 Percent Change
Relative to Southwide 50 Inc
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SRTS-Base SW Inventory 1995-2040 Percent Change
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SRTS Softwood Inventory by State
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SRTS Hardwood Market Trends Inelastic Demand,
High Softwood Growth Rates
Spring 2001
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SRTS Southern Hardwood Inventory, Growth, and
Removals
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SRTS-Base HW Harvest 1995-2040 Percent Change
Relative to Southwide 50 Inc
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SRTS-Base HW Inventory 1995-2040 Percent Change
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SRTS Hardwood Inventory by State
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RPA and SRTS ComparisonsPrivate Timber, Fall 2001

• 1995 2040
• -- billion cubic feet --
• Inventory Soft Hard Soft Hard
• RPA 90 130 128 116
• SRTS 89 121 121 152
• Growth
• RPA 5.5 4.2 8.5
  4.1
• SRTS 5.9 4.6 9.2 4.0
  
• Removals
• RPA 5.2 3.6 7.0
  4.7
• SRTS 5.5 3.1 8.6 4.6

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Summary

• U.S. South
• 64 of U.S. harvest
• 15-20 of world industrial wood production
• Softwood inventories increasing moderately
• Hardwood inventories decline by 2010-2025
• Prices projected to increase with demand
• Plantation growth rates key to softwood
  inventories and price trends
• Current base RPA w/higher softwoods, less
  hardwoods than current SRTS runs
• Supply and price trends differ by subregion

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Will Policy Allow Timber Market Model and Biology
Projections?

• Predicted increases in South assume no new policy
  interventions/restrictions
• for 50 years
• compared to West
• dont consider environmental impacts
• Do you believe this will occur?
• Will environmental groups acquiesce?
• What are consumers/retailer demands?
• Will forest products firms compete for green
  reputation?

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Potential Southern Policy Challenges Limiting
Timber Production

• Increased timber harvests
• People dislike. so do ENGOs.
• 75 are clearcuts. which are worse.
• Declining hardwood timber inventories
• Suggest we are not sustainable
• Esp. bottomlands, older stands, species
• Rapid increases in softwood inventories
• pine plantation/conversion increases
• monocultures and GMOs disliked
• gt 100 of all US harvest increases by 2050 will
  occur on private lands in the South

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More Factors Influencing Southern Forest Policy

• Population and demographic trends
• Rapid Southeastern population increases land
  loss to urban areas, mountain recreation
• South central depopulation and poverty
• Rapidly aging population throughout
• Changing economic contributions
• declining manufacturing sector
• stable to slight increases in wood sector
• rapid increases in service/recreation sector

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Environmental Outcomes of Demography and Economy

• Increased competition for scarce land
• production, urban, transportation
• amenities, retirement, recreation
• activity focused on most accessible lands
• Increased environmental protection demands
• Companies and certification getting stricter
• Higher value uses (urban, rec) drive markets
• Service sector needs scenic values
• Aging population prefers scenery
• Clearing for all purposes hurts forestry image
• Status quo of minimal regulation will cease

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Conclusion

• Rapid demand increases in early 1990s
• Less demand pressure in late 1990s
• Hardwood inventory plentiful availability issue
• High softwood productivity in future allows
  sustainable expansion
• Ag price trends influence land use change
• Demography favors shift toward South Central
• Sustainable timber production for two more
  decades in South, but differs by region
• Environmental, public opinion, ENGO, demographic,
  nontimber constraints increase

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College of Natural ResourcesNC State University

• http//natural-resources.ncsu.edu/for/