Recent developments at CIAM

1
Recent developments at CIAM

• Markus Amann
• International Institute for Applied Systems
  Analysis

2
Issues

• Revision of the NEC Directive
• Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol
• New GAINS features to model energy efficiency
  improvements and fuel substitution
• Marginal costs of GHG mitigation in Annex1
  countries

3
Revision of the NEC directive

• NEC report 6 published in July 2008
• Commission has postponed proposal on NEC until
  further notice
• New call for tenders for NEC follow-up analysis
  published without specific dates for
  calculations
• New PRIMES 2009 baseline will be released in June
  2009 will be used for EC4MACS interim assessment

4
Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

• Call for national energy projections deadline
  May 31, 2009.For appropriate format contact
  Janusz Cofala
• Baseline projection for WGSR in September 2009
  traditional GAINS analyses will be complemented
  by quantifications of impacts by the various WGE
  Task Forces and Centres
• Set of emission control scenario calculations for
  EB December 2009

5
EC4MACS schedule

• Model documentations are now on the Internet
  (www.ec4macs.eu)
• Internet consultation on methodology has been
  started deadline for comments June 15, 2009
• Interim assessment (full model chain with recent
  PRIMES CAPRI baseline projections) August 31,
  2009
• EC4MACS review workshop (together with Task Force
  on Integrated Assessment Modelling) October 2009

6
Marginal cost curves for GHG mitigation

• GAINS has been used compare GHG mitigation
  efforts between Annex 1 countries,
• all gases and sectors,
• at detailed technical level (several 100 source
  categories, 300 mitigation measures, etc.)
• systems approach (integrated perspective covering
  demand and supply sectors),
• consistent with UNFCCC 2005 inventories
• Results, input data and an interactive calculator
  freely available in the public domain
• http//gains.iiasa.ac.at

7
New GAINS structure for domestic sectorto
facilitate assessment of energy efficiency
improvements

• Separate treatment of Residential and Commercial
  energy use
• Needs distinguished
• Space heating ventilation Air conditioning
  (HVAC)
• Water heating
• Cooking
• Lighting
• Large appliances
• Small appliances,
• Up to 10 climate regions,
• Flats/Single family houses,
• Built before/after 2010,
• For each source category
• Up to 3 efficiency stages
• Switch to less carbon-intensive fuels (coal to
  gas or biomass, solar),
• District heat with CHP instead of local boilers

8
New GAINS structure for industrial sectorto
facilitate assessment of energy efficiency
improvements

• - Iron and steel
• Raw steel, Finished products, Scrap, Coke oven
  coke, Sinter, Pellets, Pig iron, Direct reduced
  iron, Open hearth furnace, Basic oxygen, Electric
  arc furnace, Casting, rolling finishing, Thin
  slab casting, Other
• Non-ferrous metals
• Aluminum (primary, secondary), Other metals
  (primary, secondary), Other
• Non-metallic minerals
• Cement (of which clinker), Lime, Other
• Chemicals
• Ammonia, Ethylene, Chlorine, Other
• Pulp and paper
• Pulp (from wood, from recovered paper), Paper and
  paperboard, Other
• Other industries
• Changes in production structure (e.g., primary
  vs. secondary metals, clinker content in cement)
  included in the baseline

9
Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps

• Inventory of 300 mitigation measures, with
  technical and economic features

10
Mitigation measures 300 options in each country
Structural measures
CO2 measures
N2O measures
F-gas measures
CH4 measures
11
Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps

• Inventory of 300 mitigation measures, with
  technical and economic features
• For each source sector in each country
• For 2005 Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
• with activity data from UNFCCC, IEA and national
  statistics,
• adjust implementation rates of mitigation
  measures.

12
Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps

• Inventory of 300 mitigation measures, with
  technical and economic features
• For each source sector in each country
• For 2005 Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
• For 2020
• Match baseline energy use of IEA World Energy
  Outlook 2008
• with activity rates projected by IEA modify
  implementation rates of energy efficiency
  measures to reproduce IEA energy projection.
• Develop baseline emission projection
• adjust implementation rates of mitigation
  measures as reported in National Communications.

13
Estimating mitigation potentialsFour steps

• Inventory of 300 mitigation measures, with
  technical and economic features
• For each source sector in each country
• For 2005 Match emissions reported to UNFCCC
• For 2020 Match baseline energy use and develop
  baseline emission projection
• Determine further mitigation potential
• from implementing the best available (energy
  efficiency and C mitigation) measures that are
  not assumed in the baseline,
• considering constraints on replacement of
  existing capital stock, structural limits, etc.

14
Energy intensity of ethylene production
15
Energy intensity of ethylene production
Efficiency frontier
16
Estimating mitigation costsThree steps

• Determine unit costs for each mitigation option
• Annualized investments operating costs
  savings per unit of reduced emissions
• Reflect resource costs without transfers (no
  taxes, subsidies, profits, transaction costs,
  etc.)
• Alternative interest rates for annualization of
  investments
• Social (4/yr)
• Private (20/yr)
• For a given mitigation target
• Determine least-cost portfolio of mitigation
  measures (i.e., including upstream effects),
  through optimization model
• Cost curves Series of optimizations between
  baseline emissions and maximum mitigation case

17
Marginal abatement cost curveAnnex I in 2020,
20 interest rate, excl. LULUCF
7 2 -3
-10 -16
Rel. to 2005

Carbon price (/t CO2eq)
200 100 0 -100 -200
3 -2 -7
-13 -20
Rel. to 1990
Analysis not completed yet for Belarus, Croatia,
Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
18
An initial implementation

• For largest Annex 1 countries (98 of 1990
  emissions), EU27 presented in aggregate
• Based on activity projections of IEA World
  Energy Outlook 2008 and FAO World Agriculture
  Perspective
• Key assumptions
• Only currently available technologies
• Natural turnover of capital stock, no premature
  scrapping
• No behavioural changes
• Domestic measures only
• LULUCF excluded for now
• Initial analysis compiled from publicly available
  information, received only limited review by
  national experts up to now

19
Baseline GHG emissions projectionsfor IEA
WEO2008 projection
Analysis not completed yet for Belarus, Croatia,
Turkey, Cyprus, Malta
20
Total costs for GHG mitigation, Annex 1, 2020
for different interest rates (excl. LULUCF)
21
Total cost curves for 2020 ( of GDP) (10
interest rate, excl. LULUCF)
AUS NZ CA NO US CH JP EU
RU UKR
22
Comparison of mitigation effortsfor a 16.5
reduction of total Annex 1 emissions Efficiency
vs. equity
23
On-line calculator on the Internethttp//gains.ii
asa.ac.at/MEC
24
Co-benefits on air pollutant emissionsAnnex 1,
2020