Syria and the Art of Authoritarian Regime Maintenance

1
Syria and the Art of Authoritarian Regime
Maintenance

• Reinoud Leenders University of Amsterdam

2
Research obstacles dilemmas

• Regime repression
• Who is who?
• Western sources
• US policy

3
Research and authoritarianism

• Access
• Publish at your peril
• Interviewees at risk
• Unpredictability

4
Who is who?

• Self-proclaimed regime advisors (mustasharin)
• Multiple roles for survival
• Enforced multiple roles
• Who am I?

5
Western sources policy

• Secrecy mistaken for being exceptionally well
  positioned and informed.
• Reliable intelligence tells us that
• Schisms in the US Administration.

6
Two common hypotheses

• Bashar and Syrian regime at large- lacks
  leadership qualities.
• Due to its ill-advised policies the Syrian regime
  has been weakened.

7
External Demands on Syria

• Halt support to both Jihadist and Baathist
  fighters against the US presence in Iraq seal
  border with Iraq.
• severe links and support to Palestinian Islamist
  groups including Hamas and Islamic Jihad and
  expel their leaders.
• Stop supporting Hizbullahs armed operations
  against Israel in south Lebanon and acting as a
  conduit for arms supplies from Iran to this
  group.
• Withdraw from Lebanon which Syria occupied since
  1976 and stop meddling in its affairs.
• Dismantle WMDs and stop efforts to acquire new.

8
Consequences of weak leadership

• US Syria-Lebanon accountability Act (SALSA) and
  widening US sanctions
• Israeli bombing raids and attacks in Syria.
• UNSCR 1559 (September 2004)
• Anti-Syrian demonstrations in Lebanon and forced
  Syrian withdrawal
• Talks on EU-Syrian Association Agreement frozen
• UN investigation into the murder of former
  Lebanese Prime minister Rafiq al-Hariri

9
Regime in bad shape

• With fall of Saddam, Baathisms bankruptcy
• Regime support in Syria narrowed.
• Embarrassment by Khaddams defection
• Syrian economy in shambles
• Little regional leverage / cards left
• Looming prosecution for Hariri murder by mixed
  Lebanese-international tribunal

10
Outmaneuvering rivals 1998-2006

• 1998 Corruption charges against General Hikmet
  Shehabi and Vice-president Abdul Halim Khaddam
  taken from Lebanon-file.
• 2000 Ghazi Kanaans removal as chief
  intelligence chief in Lebanon.
• 2000-2005 replacing or retiring old guard in
  security forces, intelligence agencies, army and
  Republican Guard, including Hassan al-Khalil
  (head military intelligence).

• June 2005 Baath congress, replacement old guard
  in Regional Command, including Khaddam
  (resigned), Abdallah al-Ahmar (assistant
  secr-gen. Baath). Membership Baath leadership
  reduced from 21 to 14.
• October 2005 suicide Kanaan.
• February 2006 Cabinet reshufflemore Baathists,
  less technocrats.

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Reshaping Syrian control over Lebanon

• 1998 Emile Lahoud president, Hoss cabinet
  replaces Hariri government and launches
  anti-corruption campaign targetting Hariri and
  allies.
• 2000 gerrymandering against Hariris return to
  power
• 2000-2004 Support to Lahoud vis-à-vis PM Hariri
  causing permanent stalemate
• September 2005 extending term Lahoud.

• October 2004 fiercely pro-Syrian Karameh
  government, Hariri, Junblatt and vrtually all
  Lebanese political class removed.
• ? Hamadeh attack (October 2004), Hariri murder
  (February 2005) ..

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Bashars cards

• No apparent alternative Iraqi chaos scenario and
  Islamist threat.
• Opposition contaminated by US links
• New sources for patronage from economic reform
• Links with potential spoilers in Iraq Sunni
  tribes west Iraq and Muqtada as-Sadr
• Iran relations Hizbullah and nuclear threat
• Palestine links to Hamas, act as broker
  following elections.
• Lebanon dependence of besieged Hizbullah and
  Lebanese Shiites on Syrian protection
• ..

13
The ultimate tool for regime maintenance

• Endless speculation and ambiguity, internalizing
  regimes dictates.
• Dictator who doesnt seem to be in control
• Control by multiple roles
• blowback of ambiguity US policy