TFEIP projections expert panel

1
TFEIP projections expert panel

• 5th Meeting
• Vienna
• 12th May 2009

2
Projections expert panel meeting agenda

• 0940 Welcome, meeting objectives and adoption of
  agenda
• 0950 Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol
  (Eduard Dame)
• 1010 Ireland projections presentation (Stephan
  Leinert)
• 1035 Slovak projections presentation (Stanislava
  Nebusova)
• 1100 Coffee
• 1130 Feedback on recent meetings
• 1200 Guidebook maintenance discussion
• 1220 Discussion (including providing projections
  data, the web portal, 2009 workplan and AOB)
• 1230 Meeting finishes

3
Update on the NECD and Gothenburg Protocol
(Eduard Dame)

• Revision NEC Directive will not be proposed by
  current College of Commissioners
• WGSR 20 23 April 2009 invited relevant TFs and
  EPs to continue working on the issue of long
  term objectives
• Revision of Gothenburg Protocol (countries
  sending baselines to CIAM before end May)
• Work for PRIMES 2009 is ongoing and it can be
  used for NECD revision and for Gothenburg
  Protocol (gap filling in national projections or
  replace national projections for EU-27)

4
Emission projections for NEC Gases Irelands
approach (Stephan Leinert)

• Advantages
• Consistency with inventories/historic data
• Consistency with national energy forecast
• Consistency with GHG projections
• Disadvantages
• Requires detailed activity data statistics (e.g.
  agriculture)
• Transport projection is not straight forward
• Fuel tourism causes conflict between consistency
  with energy forecast for fuel and realistic car
  population/mileage
• Energy forecast currently at aggregated level (no
  breakdown within fuel types yet)

5
Slovak emission projections related to NEC
Directive (Stanislava Nebusová)

• Summary
• National emission ceiling for year 2010 are
  feasible to achieve
• Proposed national emission ceiling for year 2020
  is not easily to fulfil without additional PAMs
• Model MESSAGE is very good model for projections
  in energy sector
• Next steps
• Implement other models for non energy sectors
• Transport
• Agriculture
• LULUCF
• Waste

6
Feedback from other meetings

• NIAM/APRIL/UCL meeting. Reducing the
  environmental impacts of transport with
  behavioural change
• 8-9 January 2009, London
• www.niam.scarp.se
• TFIAM/ACCENT workshop on non-binding aspirational
  scenarios for 2050. 5-6th March 2009, Utrecht
• http//iiasa.ac.at/rains/meetings/Aspiration2050/
  Presentations.html
• NIAM Meeting (in conjunction with EC4MACS
  project)
• 23-24 April 2009, IIASA
• www.niam.scarp.se

7
Guidebook discussion

• Few minor issues were discussed
• 1. Definitions
• 2. Cost-effectiveness
• 3. Role of uncertainties and sensitivities

8
AOB items

• Workplan for 2009
• Finalise Guidebook Chapter
• Decide maintenance/improvement plan
• Improve Web Page
• Links to other panels (TFIAM, NIAM, etc.)
• Decide one aspect per year to focus on (discuss,
  share documentation, work on it)