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WHY JAPAN NOW?

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WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith Donaldson. Director, Japan. WHERE DID IT ALL GO ... (no 66107), registered address Saltire Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES. ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: WHY JAPAN NOW?


1
WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith DonaldsonDirector, Japan
2
WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG?
Source Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.
3
14 year bear market
4
Bankingcrisis
14 year bear market
5
Deflation
14 year bear market
6
Unwind
14 year bear market
7
Income correction
14 year bear market
8
THEN AND NOWPost bubble problems
Source Japan Real Estate Institute. As at 30
November 2005. Source Datastream. As at 31
December 2005.
9
THEN AND NOWPrice deflation is the bear
Source Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.
10
THEN AND NOWUnwind
Bn
Source Tokyo Stock Exchange. As at 31 October
2005.
11
THEN AND NOWCorporate restructuring ended now
investing again
Capacity
ROE
12.0
10.0
Denial
8.0
Growth
6.0
Correction
Bull market
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Source METI and KBC. As at 31 December 2005.
Source Daiwa. As at 31 December 2005.
12
THEN AND NOWTightening labour market
RISING INCOMES
Source Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
As at 30 November 2005.
13
OUTLOOK
Economy ? Consumption ? Capex ? Corporate
change ? Financial system ? Supply and demand
? Reform ?
14
WHY MARTIN CURRIE FOR JAPAN?
15
JAPAN INVESTMENT TEAM
  • Keith Donaldson
  • Director
  • 26 years investment experience
  • 17 years experience of Japan
  • John Millar
  • Director
  • 11 years experience of Japan
  • Michael Thomas
  • Director, team leader
  • 30 years experience of Japan
  • 16 years at Martin Currie

John-Paul Temperley Director, Japanese
linguist 8 years experience of Japan Kevin
Troup Director 10 years experience of
Japan Katy Marchbank-Smith Investment
analyst 3 years experience of Japan Eri
McKenna Japan investment research
co-ordinator Japanese national

As at 31 December 2005.
16
OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
  • Proven and experienced team
  • Independence of mind
  • Dynamic decision-making
  • Collaboration
  • Size and location advantage
  • Big enough to get quality service
  • Investment team in one location
  • Ideal time zone reflect on Tokyo, react to
    Wall Street

17
INVESTMENT UNIVERSE
Japan equity universe
Research universe
Topix 33 sectors1,643 stocks Other2,057
stocks Total3,700 stocks
Research focus
Japan core
65-75 stocks
700 stocks
200 to300 stocks
Japan Alpha
30-40 stocks
  • Select for portfolios on
  • Fundamental analysis
  • Company meetings
  • Team discussion
  • Valuation screens
  • Technical analysis
  • Filter on
  • Liquidity (gt2m of average daily turnover)
  • Market cap gt300m

Filter onRelevance to top-down analysis
18
INVESTMENT PROCESS
  • Technical overlay
  • Supply/demand
  • Entry/exit points
  • Bottom-up
  • Prospects for top line growth
  • Competitive advantage
  • Attractive stage in margin cycle
  • Focused management
  • Financial strength
  • Valuation
  • Top-down
  • Macro analysis
  • Market structure
  • Regulatory environment
  • Looking for top line growth

19
LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE RECORD Martin Currie Japan
Fund
Martin Currie Japan Fund Out-performance versus
the Topix
Past performance is not a guide to future
returns. Source Lipper Hindsight. Bid-bid basis
with gross income reinvested over calendar years
to 31 December 2005 (). Net of fees performance
has been grossed up internally using a fee rate
of 1.25 to 31 May 2002 and 1.50 going forwards.
From 14 September 1989.
20
SUMMARY
  • The bear market is over
  • The economic backdrop is positive
  • We have an experienced and well resources team
  • We have a proven, tried and tested investment
    process

21
REGULATORY INFORMATION
  • Martin Currie Investment Management Limited
    (MCIM) has issued and approved this presentation
    in its capacity as investment adviser. MCIM is
    referred to throughout as Martin Currie. MCIM
    is authorised and regulated by the Financial
    Services Authority and is a member of the
    Investment Management Association. Registered in
    Scotland (no 66107), registered address Saltire
    Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES.
  • The presentation may not be distributed to third
    parties and is intended only for the attendee.
    The presentation does not form the basis of, nor
    should it be relied upon in connection with, any
    subsequent contract or agreement. It does not
    constitute, and may not be used for the purpose
    of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or
    otherwise acquire shares in any of the products
    mentioned.
  • The information contained in this presenter has
    been compiled with considerable care to ensure
    its accuracy. But no representation or warranty,
    express or implied, is made to its accuracy or
    completeness. Martin Currie has procured any
    research or analysis contained in this
    presentation for its own use. It is provided to
    you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed
    are subject to change without notice.
  • Past performance is not a guide to future
    returns. Markets and currency movements may cause
    the value of investments and income from them to
    fall as well as rise and you may get back less
    than you invested when you decide to sell your
    investments. There can be no assurance that you
    will receive comparable performance returns, or
    that investments will reflect the performance of
    the stock examples, contained in this presenter.
    Movements in foreign exchange rates may have a
    separate effect, unfavourable as well as
    favourable, on the gain or loss otherwise
    experienced on an investment.
  • Funds which invest in one country carry a higher
    degree of risk than those with portfolios
    diversified across a number of markets.
  • Investment in the securities of smaller and
    unquoted companies can involve greater risk than
    is customarily associated with investment in
    larger, more established, companies. In
    particular, smaller companies often have limited
    product lines, markets or financial resources and
    their management may be dependent on a smaller
    number of key individuals. In addition, the
    market for stock in smaller companies is often
    less liquid than that for stock in larger
    companies, bringing with it potential
    difficulties in acquiring, valuing and disposing
    of such stock. Proper information for determining
    their value, or the risks to which they are
    exposed, may not be available.
  • Investment in derivative instruments, including
    futures, options or contracts for differences,
    carries a high risk of loss, the markets in these
    investments being very volatile. A relatively
    small adverse market movement may result not only
    in the loss of the original investment but also
    in unquantifiable further loss exceeding any
    margin deposited. Warrants often involve a high
    degree of gearing so that a relatively small
    movement in the price of the security to which
    the warrant relates may result in a
    disproportionately large movement, unfavourable
    as well as favourable, in the price of the
    warrant.
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