Title: WHY JAPAN NOW?
1WHY JAPAN NOW? Keith DonaldsonDirector, Japan
2WHERE DID IT ALL GO WRONG?
Source Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.
314 year bear market
4Bankingcrisis
14 year bear market
5Deflation
14 year bear market
6Unwind
14 year bear market
7Income correction
14 year bear market
8THEN AND NOWPost bubble problems
Source Japan Real Estate Institute. As at 30
November 2005. Source Datastream. As at 31
December 2005.
9THEN AND NOWPrice deflation is the bear
Source Datastream. As at 31 December 2005.
10THEN AND NOWUnwind
Bn
Source Tokyo Stock Exchange. As at 31 October
2005.
11THEN AND NOWCorporate restructuring ended now
investing again
Capacity
ROE
12.0
10.0
Denial
8.0
Growth
6.0
Correction
Bull market
4.0
2.0
0.0
-2.0
-4.0
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
Source METI and KBC. As at 31 December 2005.
Source Daiwa. As at 31 December 2005.
12THEN AND NOWTightening labour market
RISING INCOMES
Source Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare.
As at 30 November 2005.
13OUTLOOK
Economy ? Consumption ? Capex ? Corporate
change ? Financial system ? Supply and demand
? Reform ?
14WHY MARTIN CURRIE FOR JAPAN?
15JAPAN INVESTMENT TEAM
- Keith Donaldson
- Director
- 26 years investment experience
- 17 years experience of Japan
- John Millar
- Director
- 11 years experience of Japan
- Michael Thomas
- Director, team leader
- 30 years experience of Japan
- 16 years at Martin Currie
John-Paul Temperley Director, Japanese
linguist 8 years experience of Japan Kevin
Troup Director 10 years experience of
Japan Katy Marchbank-Smith Investment
analyst 3 years experience of Japan Eri
McKenna Japan investment research
co-ordinator Japanese national
As at 31 December 2005.
16OUR COMPETITIVE ADVANTAGES
- Proven and experienced team
- Independence of mind
- Dynamic decision-making
- Collaboration
- Size and location advantage
- Big enough to get quality service
- Investment team in one location
- Ideal time zone reflect on Tokyo, react to
Wall Street
17INVESTMENT UNIVERSE
Japan equity universe
Research universe
Topix 33 sectors1,643 stocks Other2,057
stocks Total3,700 stocks
Research focus
Japan core
65-75 stocks
700 stocks
200 to300 stocks
Japan Alpha
30-40 stocks
- Select for portfolios on
- Fundamental analysis
- Company meetings
- Team discussion
- Valuation screens
- Technical analysis
- Filter on
- Liquidity (gt2m of average daily turnover)
- Market cap gt300m
Filter onRelevance to top-down analysis
18INVESTMENT PROCESS
- Technical overlay
- Supply/demand
- Entry/exit points
- Bottom-up
- Prospects for top line growth
- Competitive advantage
- Attractive stage in margin cycle
- Focused management
- Financial strength
- Valuation
- Top-down
- Macro analysis
- Market structure
- Regulatory environment
- Looking for top line growth
19LONG-TERM PERFORMANCE RECORD Martin Currie Japan
Fund
Martin Currie Japan Fund Out-performance versus
the Topix
Past performance is not a guide to future
returns. Source Lipper Hindsight. Bid-bid basis
with gross income reinvested over calendar years
to 31 December 2005 (). Net of fees performance
has been grossed up internally using a fee rate
of 1.25 to 31 May 2002 and 1.50 going forwards.
From 14 September 1989.
20SUMMARY
- The bear market is over
- The economic backdrop is positive
- We have an experienced and well resources team
- We have a proven, tried and tested investment
process
21REGULATORY INFORMATION
- Martin Currie Investment Management Limited
(MCIM) has issued and approved this presentation
in its capacity as investment adviser. MCIM is
referred to throughout as Martin Currie. MCIM
is authorised and regulated by the Financial
Services Authority and is a member of the
Investment Management Association. Registered in
Scotland (no 66107), registered address Saltire
Court, 20 Castle Terrace, Edinburgh, EH1 2ES. - The presentation may not be distributed to third
parties and is intended only for the attendee.
The presentation does not form the basis of, nor
should it be relied upon in connection with, any
subsequent contract or agreement. It does not
constitute, and may not be used for the purpose
of, an offer or invitation to subscribe for or
otherwise acquire shares in any of the products
mentioned. - The information contained in this presenter has
been compiled with considerable care to ensure
its accuracy. But no representation or warranty,
express or implied, is made to its accuracy or
completeness. Martin Currie has procured any
research or analysis contained in this
presentation for its own use. It is provided to
you only incidentally, and any opinions expressed
are subject to change without notice. - Past performance is not a guide to future
returns. Markets and currency movements may cause
the value of investments and income from them to
fall as well as rise and you may get back less
than you invested when you decide to sell your
investments. There can be no assurance that you
will receive comparable performance returns, or
that investments will reflect the performance of
the stock examples, contained in this presenter.
Movements in foreign exchange rates may have a
separate effect, unfavourable as well as
favourable, on the gain or loss otherwise
experienced on an investment. - Funds which invest in one country carry a higher
degree of risk than those with portfolios
diversified across a number of markets. - Investment in the securities of smaller and
unquoted companies can involve greater risk than
is customarily associated with investment in
larger, more established, companies. In
particular, smaller companies often have limited
product lines, markets or financial resources and
their management may be dependent on a smaller
number of key individuals. In addition, the
market for stock in smaller companies is often
less liquid than that for stock in larger
companies, bringing with it potential
difficulties in acquiring, valuing and disposing
of such stock. Proper information for determining
their value, or the risks to which they are
exposed, may not be available. - Investment in derivative instruments, including
futures, options or contracts for differences,
carries a high risk of loss, the markets in these
investments being very volatile. A relatively
small adverse market movement may result not only
in the loss of the original investment but also
in unquantifiable further loss exceeding any
margin deposited. Warrants often involve a high
degree of gearing so that a relatively small
movement in the price of the security to which
the warrant relates may result in a
disproportionately large movement, unfavourable
as well as favourable, in the price of the
warrant.