Growing risk Plant disease, farmer perceptions

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Growing risk? Plant disease, farmer perceptions
risk management

• Dr. Damian Maye,
• Countryside and Community Research Institute
• Institute for Rural Research Seminar,
• University of Aberdeen, 19th Nov 2008

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to develop an appraisal of the impact of plant
diseases (food and non-food) on land use and the
rural economy
Growing Risk - project aim

• Review of epidemics over the last century
• Forecast the risks for food and non-food
• Examine routes of infection
• Look at environmental and socio-economic impacts

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Routes of infection trade
through case studies

• 3. Impact of diseases spread through trade
  diffusion

Mushroom virus X complex
Ramorum die-back (sudden oak death)
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Routes of infection natural
4. Impact of diseases spread by natural
transmission
Potato blight
Wheat leaf blotch
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Impact of some recent plant disease outbreaks on
crop production (Future Threats, 2006 15)
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GEOGRAPHIES OF DISEASE

• Emerging research area in human geography / rural
  studies (see Bingham et al., 2008 Enticott,
  2001 2008a/b Hinchcliffe, 2007)
• Emphasis on animal diseases (e.g. BSE, bovine TB,
  FMD outbreaks, E coli)
• Useful critiques of biosecurity measures
• BUT
• Notable lack of work in HG on plant diseases
• Can also make greater use of risk management
  studies?

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Review of social science literature on risk
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• Two core elements
• Risk / risk perception
• Farmer knowledges
• 1. RISK
• An increasingly important policy concept?
• How do we define risk?
• Risk perception
• Trust and risk communication

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Risks in the supply chain negative or positive?

• Negative 64
• Positive 15
• Dont know/no answer 21
• The general tendency is to perceive risks in
  negative terms the
• whole GM debate is a prime example
• BUT
• Risk provides an incentive for development of
  new varieties
• It is the exception or real entrepreneur who
  looks for opportunities
• within risk
• Perceived risks can actually increase production
  and returns, thereby
• creating development incentives

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• Slovic et al. (2004)
• Risk as feelings
• Risk as analysis
• Risk as politics

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2. FARMERS KNOWLEDGE ABOUT RISK

• Key factors
• The individual
• The risk
• The local context
• Sligo and Massey (2007)
• Trustworthiness of information
• How is information communicated?

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• Hazards / risks
• Natural
• Human
• Technological

Expert knowledge OBJECTIVE
Risk perception SUBJECTIVE
Lay knowledges of risk
Expert-based risk assessment
Risk communication / trust
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Some stakeholder comments on risks in the food
chain
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The UK supply chain potential risks 2008 and 2013
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Other risk factors

• EU crop/pesticide legislation
• Water (scarcity/flooding) weather/climatic
  conditions
• Price volatility/oil prices-costs
• Population growth and world food supply
• Land abandonment/loss of productive land
• Food chain/safety/nutrition issues
• Industrial (labour supply) action
• Government inaction/incompetence

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• Thematic strategy on the Sustainable Use of
• Pesticides, or risk as politics
• Three major changes to Regulation 91/414
• Change from a risk-based to hazard-based
  registration system, with the introduction of
  cut-off criteria
• Mutual recognition zones
• Candidates for substitution
• Pesticides Safety Directory, May 2008
• If the full potential impact of the current
  Parliament proposals were realized, conventional
  commercial agriculture in the UK (and much of the
  EC) as it is currently practised would not be
  achievable, with major impacts on crop yield and
  food quality.

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Closing remarks

• The potential impacts of Regulation 91/414 are
  clearly significant and still being negotiated
• In this case, regulation may increase the (plant)
  disease burden?
• Need also to consider the role of emotions in
  plant disease management (or risk as affect)