Whats happening in Asia Writ Large

1
Whats happening in AsiaWrit Large

• Chung Min Lee, Yonsei Intl Director

2
Asia is entering final stage of 19th Century

• No longer catching up with West
• Coinciding with Globalization
• Democratization spreading across Asia
• Sustainable development
• Nationalism rampant
• Searching for new goals identities

3
Devolution of Power

• Destruction of hierarchies
• Day of 1 party state ending
• Significant political conflict until self
  government is in place
• Need more equal distribution of resources

4
Cumulative rise of China India

• China will drive East South Asia for next 100
  years
• China has normalized relations with all 14 of her
  neighbors over last 20 years

5
Unification Scenarios for The Koreas

• Negotiations settlements
• Prolonged status quo
• North Korea reforms itself
• Collapse volatility

6
Prediction for Korean resolution

• Dynasty will end with Kim Jong Il
• Leninist nature of society will begin to collapse
• Army will try to fill void but wont know how to
  govern
• Therefore collapse of NK absorption by SK at
  enormous cost.

7
If U.S. forces go home

• Foreign investment will dry up
• SK defense budget increases