CAN SCIENCE BE USEFUL Bryce Cooper

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CAN SCIENCE BE USEFUL?Bryce Cooper
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Water Connects Ecosystems
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The Leading Edge of Our Science 20 years ago
measure and record 15 years ago develop
guidelines 10 years ago scenarios 5 years ago
risks and uncertainty now and in future
real-time forecasts
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• Enablers of Futures Science
• Data and monitoring networks
• Remote sensing technology
• Ecosystems understanding
• Spatial analysis tools (e.g., models)
• Computer grunt

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So What Environmental Futures Can We Predict?

• Climate change and variability
• Hazard riskscapes (storm surge, tsunami)
• Energy futures
• Water quantity (droughts and floods)
• Water quality
• Ecological responses

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Climate as an Economic Driver Climate and
Agricultural GDP
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Climate for success reducing
business risk/increasing returns
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Climate Change and Its Effects
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Rural Land Use Change Modelling
User Interface
Biophysical Models
Create new scenarios
SPARROW EnSuS OVERSEER SPASMO etc
Socio-Economic models
and jobs
Scenario
GIS application Data layers Controller
Scenario
Water Quantity and Quality
Predictive Outputs
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Water Quality Predicted N Load To Streams
(kg/ha/year)
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Nitrogen Load to the Coast
Point Source, 3
Other Non-pasture, 2
Other Pasture, 33
Dairy, 37
Trees, 25
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AQUACULTURE Predicting production and
environmental effects
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Future for aquaculture?.
..move to higher value species products (e.g,
kingfish) (N.Z. - 1,750/t Oz
22,667/t) .but what will be the ecological
footprint?
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Some Futures Analyses in the Waikato

• Lake Taupo
• Waikato River
• Raglan
• Firth of Thames

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Waiting for certainty can take a long time
Tom Scott