ARTWG Weather Subgroup

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ARTWG Weather Subgroup
Co-Chairs John Madura NASA KSC, FL Rich
Heuwinkel FAA/AST Washington, DC May
2003 Orlando, Florida
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Definition and Scope forWeather Systems

• Systems are required to rapidly detect, evaluate,
  and communicate to vehicles, crews, and decision
  makers, in near real time, those weather
  parameters, forecasts and warnings which are key
  to safe, efficient operations.
• Operations include ground processing, ascent,
  flight, and recovery.
• Weather parameters include upper level winds for
  vehicle loads and trajectory shaping surface
  winds, thermal structure and natural lightning
  for ground processing and toxic hazard decisions
  triggered lightning potential to protect
  sensitive electronics cloud thickness, coverage
  and height, and precipitation for visibility and
  thermal protection systems and electron, proton,
  and x-ray flux to assess flight hazards to
  vehicle, crew, and payload systems.
• All weather data must be archived to permit
  accurate assessments of system design and
  operational issues. Consultation with weather
  personnel while designing operational systems or
  processes, to ensure weather impacts and
  capabilities are properly considered, is
  essential to reducing the impact of atmospheric
  phenomena on Range and Spaceport customers.
• To cost-effectively develop and implement new
  technologies, customers must be directly involved
  in setting goals and priorities through a process
  similar to that currently exemplified by the
  NASA/USAF/NWS Applied Meteorology Unit.

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ADVANCED RANGE TECHNOLOGY WORKING GROUP (ARTWG)
CAPABILITY ROADMAP Weather
Far-term FY 2016-2028
Near-term FY 2004-2009
Mid-term FY 2010-2015
Regional Weather hubs for forecasting and
technology transition
Centralized hub facilities for forecasting and
technology transition
Enhanced Local Prediction
Improved spatial and temporal resolution and
accuracy of forecasts and warnings
Significant reduction in weather impacts on
ground processing productivity, launch scrubs,
and EOM diverts
Modernize local sensors Initiate development of
Space based sensors
Transition / Optimize Space based weather sensors
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Weather Sub-Functions (1 of 3)

• Forecasts for Spaceport Operations
• Improved Weather Warnings (lightning w/i 5 NM
  winds gt35 knots hail extreme temperatures, etc)
  with gt/ 30 minutes lead time
• Improved Catastrophic Weather Warningstornadoes,
  convective non-convective winds gt60 knots, hail
  gt1/2 inch with gt/ 15 minutes lead time
  freezing rain and blizzards with gt 24 hours lead
  time
• Improved 2 hour Forecasts of Location of
  Convective Weather Cells
• Improved Communication of Warnings
• Launch Commit Criteria Evaluation
• Improved Lightning Launch Commit Criteria (LLCC)
• Improved Upper Air Winds
• Improved Low Level Wind (Direction and Speed)
  Forecasts for winds gt 20 knots.
• Toxic Corridor, Debris Impact Points, and Blast
  Predictions
• Improved 4D Toxic Concentration Predictions
  Debris Impact Points and Acoustic Damage

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Weather Sub-Functions (2 of 3)

•  Recovery Forecasts
• Improved 90-Minute Forecasts at Recovery Sites.
  Accuracies met gt 95 of time
•  Infrastructure/People
• Data automatically sensed, QCd, archived,
  analyzed, displayed, transformed into forecasts
  and warnings, and communicated to customers.
• Forecast Hubs serving multiple Spaceports
• Maximum Use of Space Based Weather Sensors to
  Service multiple Ranges/Spaceports
• Technology Transition Unit(s) to transition
  needed weather technology into operations
• Advanced Degree Atmospheric Scientists at Space
  System design nodes

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Weather Sub-Functions (3 of 3)

• Space Forecasts
• Improved Solar Events Occurrence Forecasts
  flare/x-ray level, filament eruption, CME, etc.
  Help mitigate and exploit effects of space
  environment on Satcom, radar, and HF
  Communications
• Improved Solar Events Effects ForecastsShort
  Term Particle events, ionospheric effects, polar
  cap absorption events, etc. Help mitigate
  exploit effects on spacecraft operations and high
  altitude aircraft missions including satellite
  disorientation, false sensor readings, spacecraft
  charging/damage, degraded communication over
  poles, and radiation exposure to Astronauts and
  aircrews.
• Improved Solar Events Effects ForecastsLong
  Term geomagnetic events, etc. Mitigate/exploit
  effects on spacecraft operations and
  communications such as spacecraft charging and
  drag, space track errors, launch trajectory
  errors, radar interference, and radiation hazards

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Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time
Forecasts for Spaceport Operations
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Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time Launch
Commit Criteria Evaluation
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Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time
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Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time
Infrastructure
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Sub-Functions and Capabilities Over Time Space
Forecasts
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ARTWG WEATHER TECHNOLOGY ROADMAP
Near-term FY 2004-2009
Far-term FY 2016-2028
Mid-term FY 2010-2015
Denser Sensors

• Forecasts for Spaceport Operations
• - Improve input accuracy
• - Improve models
• - Improve data fusion
• - Improve Communications
• Launch Commit Criteria Evaluation
• - Lightning
• Upper Level Winds
• Launch Pad Winds
• Toxic Corridors
• Debris Fallout
• Blast Predictions
• Infrastructure/ People
• Space Forecasts

UAV Sensors
(Soil, Buoys, River, GPS)
Remote Sensors (space based, etc.)
Blended System Models
Research electric field relationships
Continuous improvement
Reduce vehicle vulnerability to lightning
Refine Threat Assessment Techniques
Improved data processing for winds
Increased use of wind profilers
Boundary layer research
Improved environmental inputs
Improved models debris, blast
Improved visualizations
Increased staff meteorologists in development orgs
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Current Technology ProjectsOpportunities for
Synergy

• Sensors
• Regional/Statewide Meso-network for Mesoscale
  models
• GPS based Total Precipitable Water Sensors
• MDCRS Water Vapor data from sensors on
  commercial and private aircraft
• 4D Assimilation of data from diverse sources and
  non-standard times
• Models
• Blended Systems
• MCAR Auto-nowcaster
• NIMROD (UK)
• Weather Research and Forecast Model (WRF)
• Warning Decision Support System (WDSS II)
• Airborne Field Mill (ABFM) 2 Data Analysis
• Fusion/Assimilation/Visualization/Communications
• COTS enhancements Aural notification, visual
  displays, automated QC

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Remaining Technology Needs

• Quantity quality of data for models
• Improve observed thermodynamic (temperature,
  moisture, pressure) and wind data with sufficient
  spatial and temporal resolution to feed newly
  developed models
• Improve Space-based surface soil moisture sensors
  and data algorithms
• Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transformer
  Spectrometer (GIFTS) (See Earth Observation
  Magazine August 2002 pg 15 27)
• Global Environmental MicroElectroMechanical
  System (MEMS) Sensors (GEMS)
• Improve accuracy of gt2 day forecasts
• Improve Numerical Model assumptions as Spatial
  and Temporal Resolution of Models increases
• Improved Blended Systems that smoothly
  transition between different time scales,
  synoptic regimes, and assign weights
• 1. Numerical Models (Analysis, Nowcast,
  Convective Scale, Mesoscale, Global)
• 2. Extrapolation Techniques\
• 3. Physically Based Rules (heuristic) all able
  to be modified perturbed by forecaster

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Remaining Technology Needs

• Improve accuracy of gt2 day forecasts (continued)
• Computers powerful enough to run models at
  increasingly higher convective scale resolutions
  and shorter run times to increase usefulness for
  operational decisions
• Mesoscale models with
• Spatial Resolution lt 1 KM
• Forecast Length 1-96 Hours
• Coverage Nested---Regional-Local
• Run Time lt 1/10 Forecast Length
• Mesoscale Coupled Sea, Land and Air Model
  (McSLAM)
• Improve lightning forecasts, downbursts
  predictions, and lightning LCC evaluation with
  enhanced
• 1. Dual Polarmetric Radar Algorithms
• 2.     Multi-static Radar algorithms (Full 3D
  wind )retrieval
• 3.     Radiometer Algorithms
• Remotely measure Electric Fields in clouds
• Modify weather

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Remaining Technology Needs

• Automated analysis tools
• Improved data assimilation, analysis, and
  visualization toolsneeded as data complexity
  increases, spatial and temporal resolution
  improves, data latency decreases, etc.
• Measuring electric fields
• Based on results of ABFM 2, initiate new ABFM 3
  Data Gathering Analysis Program to include
  radiometers and multi-polarization Radar
• Physical Model(s) of Electric Field Generation
• Lightning hardened vehicles, FTSs, and payloads
• Understanding of electric field thresholds for
  triggered lightning as a function of launch
  vehicle characteristics
• Day of launch aircraft equipped with field mills,
  plus other instrumentation such as 1-3 cm radar,
  dropsondes, cloud sensors, and ability to
  downlink data to ground in real time. (Helps
  evaluate possible spatial and temporal variations
  in electric field near flight path.)
• Ability to remotely Measure Electric Field Along
  and Upstream of Flight Path

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Remaining Technology Needs

• Upper level winds
• Multistatic Radar Profilers Procure and develop
  a concept of operations
• Satellite based wind profilers
• Vehicle based wind profilers
• Data assimilation, analysis, visualization
• Improved data assimilation, analysis, and 4D
  visualization tools for numerous parameters with
  high spatial and temporal resolution
• Mesosphere and 4-D (x, y, z, t) data
• Ability to accurately monitor and forecast
  temperature, density, pressure, wind speed and
  direction worldwide

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Remaining Technology Needs

• Improve Data Models People and Sensor
  Centralization Technology Transition and Design
  Support
• Improved systems to automatically
• 1. Sense (high resolution 4D), QC, archive,
  analyze, and display data
• 2. Transform data into forecasts and warnings,
  provided to forecaster for tailoring
• 3. Communicate to customers
• Centralize Spaceport/Range A. Forecast Support
  Units and B. Technology Transition Units, in
  hubs supporting multiple Ranges/Spaceports, then
  eventually one which services all
  Spaceports/Ranges
• Improved Satellite A. Onboard Power and B.
  Transmit Communications Bandwidth
• Advanced Degree Meteorologists participate in A.
  Design of vehicles and payloads, and B.Concepts
  of Operation --for instance at Space and Missile
  Center. Purpose Ensure Impact of Environment Is
  Properly Considered