Verification Development

1

Organization of American States (OAS) Committee
on Hemispheric Security 7 February 2008 Tibor
Tóth Executive Secretary Preparatory Commission
for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty
Organization
2
Components of the Verification Regime
3
Data from Remote Station, to Vienna, to State
Signatory
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The Complete IMS Verification System
Primary Seismic
Auxiliary Seismic
Radionuclide
Hydroacoustic
Infrasound
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IMS Stations in IDC Operations as of31 December
2007 218 Stations
PS 37 AS 82 HA 11 IS 37 RN 51
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On-Site Inspection Activities(after entry into
force)
Installing Seismic Stations
Conducting Overflight
Triggering Event Ground Zero
Performing Air Sampling
Visual Observations
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• Conclusions

• This DPRK event demonstrated that PTS can
  receive and review data to timelines envisaged
  after EIF
• The event was well recorded at IMS seismic
  stations throughout the world
• A good event location was made available to
  States automatically within 2 hours in Standard
  Event List 1
• This location was corroborated and improved, in
  the Reviewed Event Bulletin issued less than
  two days after the end of 9 October
• The location uncertainty was less than the
  maximum uncertainty allowed for an On Site
  Inspection under the Treaty (1,000 sq km)
• Using PTS atmospheric transport modelling,
  radioactive noble gas observations
  at Yellowknife, Canada, were shown to be
  consistent with a hypothesised release
  of radioactive Xenon at the time and location of
  the DPRK event
• Other known sources of man-made radionuclides
  could be excluded
• Modelling showed that additional IMS noble gas
  stations will greatly improve our ability to
  record radioactive Xenon from a release at this
  location in the future
• All this bodes well for the future
  effectiveness of the verification system

8
Summary on IDC Secure Website
9
Map showing the 13 IMS seismic stations used in
the automatic location (SEL1) made available
within 2 hours

• The event was recorded at IMS stations throughout
  the world
• (SEL1 Standard Event List 1)

10
Map of all the events included in the IDC
REBs since February 2000 around the Korean
peninsula
16 Apr 2002 event
9 Oct 2006 event
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Seismic signals recorded in South Korea (KSRS)
for 9 Oct 2006 event (left) and 16 Apr 2002 event
(right)
9 October 2006
16 April 2002 (presumed earthquake)
More explosion-like
More earthquake-like
- But in general, discrimination of (especially
small) explosions from earthquakes is a complex
task.
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Average Detection Capability of the IMS
Networkduring the Hour of the Event
13
Map showing the IDC automatic and reviewed
locations with their uncertainties

• The location detected automatically is shown in
  red. Its uncertainty ellipse was 2,389 sq km
• The location reviewed by analysts is shown in
  blue. Its uncertainty ellipse was 880 sq km
• (1,000 sq km is the maximum area allowed for an
  On-Site Inspection under the Treaty)

gt 100km lt
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Access to PTS Data and Products Automatic
Standard Event List 1 within 2 hours
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Events Located by PTS 21 February 2000 to 31
August 2007
186,732 Events 25k/year
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Seismology Civil and Scientific Applications
1/2
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Global Seismic Hazard Map
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Seismology Civil and Scientific Applications
2/2
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Distribution of Large Earthquakes and Earthquakes
accompanied with Tsunami
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Global and Regional Tsunami Warning Centers
ICG/NEAMTWS
WC/ATWC
NWPTAC
PTWC
ICG/CA
CA-TWS
ICG/IOTWS
SWP-TWS
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PTS Contribution to Tsunami Warning

• Following the tsunami of 26 December 2004,
  discussions have taken place on possible
  technical contributions.
• PrepCom on 4 March 2005 decided to start data
  forwarding on a test basis
• PrepCom in November 2006 established policy for
  provision of data to tsunami warning
  organizations. Currently data is forwarded to
  four organizations.

Northwest Pacific Tsunami Advisory Center
Pacific Tsunami Warning Center
Malaysian Meteorological Department
Australian Tsunami Warning System
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Seismic, Hydroacoustic and Tsunami Signalat HA08
S/N 26 December 2004
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Data Transmission Delay NWPTAC
CTBTO/IMS 30 seconds at most LISS 100
seconds on average IRIS 180 seconds on average
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Data Availability at NWPTAC
Average Internet 82.14 CTBTO/IMS 99.67
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Horizontal Error of Estimated Hypocenter
Near Sumatra Islands
Internet(LISS,IRIS) CTBTO/IMS
Internet(LISS,IRIS)
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FK Azimuth variation with time Indicates
Rupture ExtentC. McCreery, PTWS

• North-to-south rupture, inferred from aftershock
  location relative to the main-shock.
• Azimuth of the T-phase varies from south to
  north, consistent with the probable rupture.
• By 0140, the size of the fault rupture (gt 1000
  km) could be known using the T-Phase Azimuth.

The white line is the azimuth propagating out
from Diego Garcia. The red star is the
main-shock hypocenter, and the grey dots are
aftershock locations. The plot on the right is
the energy envelope over time from the FK
analysis. The red line is the current time step.
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• Seismic Activity, Current and Proposed IMS
  Stations
• in the Region

Since the beginning of Reviewed Event Bulletin
production on 21 February 2000 the IDC reported
on over 22 000 events in and around Indonesia
with magnitude (mb) range from 2.3 to 6.2.
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Hydroacoustic Civil and Scientific Applications
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Biological Noise

• Fin Whale

• Pilot Whale

• Whales lower frequencies are in range of IMS
  stations

• Blue Whale

• Sperm Whale

Humpback Whale

• evening chorus

• biologics

• Timor Sea examples

30
Animated motion of the emitted gas from 9 to 30
October 2006 (0-30m altitude)
31
Source of meteorological data utilized in all ATM

• European Meteorological Centre for Medium Range
  Weather Forecasts (ECMWF)
• ECMWF is accepted as the best provider of global
  meteorological data sets
• Number of observations used daily exceeds 6
  million
• These include 29 different types of satellite
  observation

32
Predicted Xenon-133 signal at Yellowknife from a
release at the time and place of the 9 October
event (lower graph), compared with observations

• The two are similar, supporting the hypothesis
  of a release on 9 Oct in the DPRK region

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Xenon-133 at Yellowknife (Aug. 2003 - Oct. 2006)

• The attribution of any single peak depends
  crucially upon the prevailing meteorological
  conditions
• All peaks prior to 21 Oct. 2006 were consistent
  with emissions from a known facility

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Exclusion of possible source locations

• Regions in which an emission at some time
  during the period 11 23 October could have
  generated the signal at Yellowknife during the
  time period of the second peak (23 25 October)
• Uncoloured regions, which include CRL, could
  not have generated this signal

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For each location, the emission of Xenon-133 that
would be necessary at 0000-0300UT on 9 Oct to
create the 21 October peak at Yellowknife
(backtracking)

• Uncoloured regions could not have given rise to
  the peak in the indicated period
• Korean peninsula is one region which could have,
  with a plausible concentration
• IDC based its ATM on data comprising 6 million
  weather observations per day
• ATM crucial in the interpretation of observations
  at IMS radionuclide stations

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Infrasound Civil and Scientific Applications
2/2
Specific ways for the cooperation between the PTS
and the International Civil Aviation Organization
were discussed by scientific experts this year in
Berlin.
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• Infrasound Recording at IS26

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Civil and Scientific Applications of CTBT
Verification Technologies
Potential civil and scientific applications were
identified and examined during four scientific
experts discussions held in 2002 (London, UK),
2003 (Sopron, Hungary), 2004 (Berlin, Germany),
2006 (Budapest, Hungary)
Seismic - Research on earthquake/volcanic
eruption prediction. - Studies on the structure
of the earth.
Hydroacoustic- Location of underwater volcanic
events - Monitoring of sea temperature and signs
of global warming
Infrasound -
Detection of volcanic eruptions (possible effects
on aviation) - Oceanic swell research -
Atmospheric and meteorological studies -
Detection of meteor impacts in the atmosphere

• Radionuclide
• - Radiation monitoring on possible radioactive
  releases
• Studies on natural radioactivity
• - Atmospheric monitoring and biological research

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Secure Signatory Accounts as of 17 January 2008
Africa Middle East and South Asia Algeria Libya
Nigeria Bangladesh Kyrgyzstan Botswana
Madagascar South Africa Iran (Islamic Republic
of) OmanBurkina Faso Malawi Tunisia Israel Sri
LankaEgypt Mali Uganda Jordan Tajikistan Ethiopi
a Morocco Zambia Kazakhstan Uzbekistan Kenya Namib
ia Zimbabwe Kuwait
Eastern Europe North America and Western
Europe Albania Estonia Russian Austria France Spai
nArmenia Georgia Federation Belgium Germany Sw
eden Azerbaijan Hungary Slovakia Canada Greece Swi
tzerland Belarus Lithuania Slovenia Cyprus Iceland
Turkey Bulgaria Montenegro Ukraine Denmark Italy
UK Croatia Poland Finland Netherlands
USA Czech Republic Romania Norway
Latin America and the Caribbean South-East Asia,
the Pacific and the Far East Argentina Guatemala A
ustralia Mongolia Solomon Islands Belize
Honduras China New Zealand Thailand Bolivia Jamai
ca Indonesia Papua New Guinea Viet
Nam Brazil Mexico Japan Philippines Chile
Panama Malaysia Republic of Korea Colombia Paragu
ay Costa Rica Peru Ecuador Uruguay El
Salvador Venezuela
TOTAL 97 States with 859 Users in 207
Establishments
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Thank you
CP19552T