Wind Energy

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Feasibility of Wind Energy In North
Carolina North Carolina Sustainable Energy
Conference April 14th, 2009 Dennis Scanlin
Appalachian State University
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Cumulative Installed World Wind Power
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Top Ten Wind Adopting Countries

• 121,188 MW worldwide total
• 27 annual growth in 07 29 on 08 with 27,261 MW
  installed
• 200 billion total investment
• 1.5 of worlds electricity
• 440,000 jobs worldwide
• 10 worlds electricity by 2020 if current trends
  continues

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Rapid Growth in the Wind Industry
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U.S. Wind Power Capacity Up 46 in 2007, 50 in
2008

• Record years for new U.S. wind capacity
• 5,329 MW of wind added in 07 8,300 MW in 08
• Roughly 25 billion in investment

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US Wind Industry

• US led the world in 2006, 2007, 2008
• 50 growth in 2008
• 1 of US electricity
• Over 25,000 MW
• 8 million homes
• 8,300 MW in 2008 (15 billion invested)
• 34 states (Texas, Iowa, California, Minnesota,
  Washington)

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Wind Power Contributed 35 of All New Generating
Capacity in the US in 2007

• Wind was the 2nd-largest resource added for the
  3rd-straight year
• Up from 19 in 2006, 12 in 2005, and lt4 in
  2000-2004

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Wind Penetration by Country
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Drivers for Wind Power

• Declining Wind Costs
• Fuel Price Uncertainty
• Federal and State Policies
• Economic Development
• Public Support
• Green Power
• Energy Security
• Global Warming

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Capacity Cost Trends
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Wind Has Been Competitive with Wholesale Power
Prices in Recent Years

• Wholesale price range reflects flat block of
  power across 23 pricing nodes (see previous map)
• Wind prices are capacity-weighted averages from
  cumulative project sample

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Gas Price Volatility
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Renewables Portfolio Standards
28 states have an RPS 5 states have an RE goal
DSIRE www.dsireusa.org

January
2009
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States with Green Power Programs
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Economic Impacts

• Land Lease Payments 2-3 of gross revenue
  2500-4000/MW/year
• Local property tax revenue ranges widely -
  300K-1700K/yr per 100MW
• 100-200 jobs/100MW during construction
• 6-10 permanent OM jobs per 100 MW
• Local construction and service industry
  concrete, towers usually done locally

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Economics

• Each 100 MW of wind energy development in region
  will produce approximately
• 27 million in direct, indirect, induced
  economic benefit to state during construction and
  3 million each year during operation
• 7.32 million paid in wages during construction
  and 1.35 million in wages each year during
  operation
• 250 jobs during construction
• 45 long term jobs
• Property tax revenue approximately
  1,000,000/year in NC (low by national standards)
• Land Lease Payments 250,000 - 400,000/year
  (2-3 of gross revenue or 2500-4000/MW/year)
• Approximately 350 million kwh every year, at a
  competitive price and without any air pollution
  or energy price increases. Enough to power
  33,000 houses.

Each MW of wind development costs approximately
1.65 million dollars Each MW of wind will
produce between 3 3.5 million kwh/year on a
good wind site.
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Wind vs Coal
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Environmental Benefits

• No SOx or NOx
• No particulates
• No mercury
• No CO2
• No water

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World Carbon Emissions
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Attitudes Towards Wind Energy in NC

• Western NC Survey
• 75 indicating they wanted more wind power
• 63.5 support for turbines on ridge tops, 19
  against
• 79 supported single turbines, 9 against
• 57.3 supported clusters of 10 or more turbines
  on ridge tops, 27.5 against
• 66 supported turbines near their home, 21
  against

• Eastern NC Survey
• 7 out of 10 support turbines on coastal
  mainland, offshore, and with existing towers.

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Wind Technology
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Sizes and Applications

• Small (?100 kW)
• Homes (Grid
• connected)
• Farms
• Remote Applications
• (e.g. battery charging, water pumping, telecom
  sites)

• Intermediate
• (100 kW 1MW)
• Village / Farm Power
• Community Wind

• Large (1MW-5MW)
• Wind Farms
• Offshore Wind Generation

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Large Scale Wind Turbines

• 5 - 6 million KWH/yr
• 500 - 600 homes
• 500,000/yr green power
• 7 - 8 million lbs CO2/yr
• 8 - 9 tons NOX/yr

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Average Turbine Size
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Average Wind Farm Size
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Cost per KW
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Offshore Wind
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Offshore Wind Present and Future Prospects

• Shallow offshore costs range from or 8-15 cents
  per kWh
• Shallow water deployment depths --- up to 20
  meters

• Foundation types - monopile and gravity base
• US projects in permit phases
• Cape Cod, MA
• Long Island, NY

Proposed Offshore Wind Projects 11,455 MW
(through 2010)
Offshore Wind Projects Worldwide 617 MW (2004)
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Intermediate Size Turbines (250 KW)
From the Blue Ridge Parkway overlook 1-1/4 miles
away
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Small Residential Scale Turbines could power1 -
6 houses(3,000 60,000 KWH/yr)
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Ned Trivettes 1 KW Whisper in Watauga County
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Dr. Miess 10 KW Bergey, Haywood County
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Appalachian Small Wind Research Demonstration
Site
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Kathy Mansfield, in Ashe County, NC
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Appalachian State 100 KW Wind Turbine
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Cape Hatteras National Seashore Visitors Center
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Blackwater USA - 50 kW (Moyock, NC)
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Wind Maps
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24 County Western NC Wind Map
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NC Potential

• Total Geographical potential in mountains, sounds
  and coastal areas is approximately 35,000 MW
• DOE 20 scenario identified 12,325 MW of
  potential
• 10,000 MW in mountains along 1,000 miles of ridge
  line (25 of NC electricity from 6,666 turbines)
  
• ASU Energy Center after all exclusion zones 3,150
  MW in west (8 of NC electricity from 2100
  turbines)
• Older DOE estimated NC developable potential is
  1,610 MW from 1073 turbines (4 of states
  electricity)
• LaCapra Study estimates 1,500 MW of developable
  potential (500 in east 1000 in west) (3.7 of
  states electricity from 1000 turbines)
• NCSEA has identified wind as potentially
  providing 16 of the NC 12.5 REPS of which
  would require around 450 utility scale turbines
  (810 MW for 2 of states electricity)
• ASU Energy center identified 767MW after applying
  all exclusion zones 50 acre minimum and 5 miles
  to transmission

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Summary of NC Wind Potential

• 1,000 MW 35,000 MW
• 3,000 MKWH - 116,000 MKWH
• 2 - 86 of NC electricity

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20 Wind Energy by 2030

• One scenario for reaching 20 wind electricity by
  2030 Is not a prediction, but an analysis based
  on one scenario
• Does not assume specific policy support for wind
• More than 100 individuals involved from 2006 -
  2008 (government, industry, utilities, NGOs)
• Critically examines winds roles in energy
  security, economic prosperity and environmental
  sustainability

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The 20 Scenario
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46 States Would Have Substantial Wind
Development by 2030
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20 Wind Scenario Impact on Generation Mix in
2030
U.S. electrical energy mix

• Reduces electric utility natural gas consumption
  by 50
• Reduces total natural gas consumption by 11
• Natural gas consumer benefits 86-214 billion
• Reduces electric utility coal consumption by 18
• Avoids construction of 80 GW of new coal power
  plants

Source Hand et al., 2008
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New Transmission for 20
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National (U.S.) Economic Impacts Cumulative
impacts from 2007-2030 From the 20 Scenario-
300 GW new Onshore and Offshore development
Wind energys economic ripple effect
Indirect Induced Impacts
Totals (construction 20yrs)

• Direct Impacts
• Payments to Landowners
• 782 M
• Local Property Tax Revenue
• 1,877 M
• Construction Phase
• 1.75 M FTE jobs
• 293 B to the US economy
• Operations
• 1.16 M FTE jobs
• 122 B to the US economy

• Construction Phase
• 4.46 M FTE jobs
• 651 B to the US economy
• Operations
• 2.15 M FTE jobs
• 293 B to the US economy

• Total economic benefit 1,359 B
• New jobs during construction 6.2 M FTE jobs
• New operations jobs 3.3 M FTE jobs

All monetary values are in 2006 dollars.
Construction Phase 1-2 years
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Potential Economic Impacts in NCFrom the 20
Vision(12,325 MW new Onshore and Offshore North
Carolina development)
Source NREL
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NC Wind Turbine Manufacturing
Assumption 50,000 MW of national wind turbine
development would lead to the following NC new
jobs and investment potential based on current
manufacturing activity that could support turbine
parts production.

• Employment - 4,600 new potential jobs
• Nacelle and controls (majority),
• Rotor,
• Gearbox and drive train,
• Generator and power electronics,
• Tower components.

New Investment - 1.5 billion average investment
for each manufacturing opportunity noted
above Web report at http//www.repp.org/articles/
static/1/binaries/WindLocator.pdf
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NCSEA Industry Census

• NC Sustainable Energy Association
• Report Renewable Energy Energy Efficiency
  Industry Census 2008

Source NC Sustainable Energy Association.
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency Industry
Census 2008.

• Employment grew 18 since 2007
• Estimate over 6,400 jobs across industry in
  North Carolina
• Over 70 of jobs are with firms associated with
  manufacturing
• Industry Composition majority of firms small,
  relatively new to industry

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Model Ordinance for NC

• 3 size classifications
• Under 20 kW
• 20 kW to 100 kW
• Over 100 kW
• Setbacks from 1.1 to 2.5 times height of turbine
• Includes standard definitions, permit application
  recommendations, noise shadow flicker maximums
  decommissioning

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Permitting of Wind Energy FacilitiesHouse Bill
809 Senate Bill 1068

• House Bill Sponsors Harrison, Fisher, Owens,
  Faison, Glazier, Insko, Lucas
• Senate Bill Sponsors
• Albertson, Atwater, Davis, Dorsett, Goss,
  Jenkins, Kinnaird, Purcell, Weinstein

• gt 2 MW
• Permitting requirements defined
• 2,000 fee
• Public hearing required
• Proposes a modification of ridge law exemption
  for windmills