Systemic Foresight Appreciation

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Systemic ForesightAppreciation
Anticipationin the evolution of nano-field
Ozcan Saritas Denis LoveridgeOzcan.Saritas_at_
manchester.ac.uk / Denis.Loveridge_at_manchester.ac.u
k
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Manchester Institute of Innovation ResearchMIoIR
MIoIR brings together the strengths of PREST and
CRIC

• MIoIR has 5 major research themes in which we
  are, or seek to be, world leaders
• Technology strategy and innovation management
• Service and organisational innovation
• Science and innovation policy including as
  strong pillar Foresight
• Innovation and sustainability
• Innovation and economic development

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Foresight

• the application of
• systematic,
• participatory,
• future-intelligence-gathering and
  medium-to-long-term vision building process to
• informing present-day decisions and mobilising
  joint actions

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The uses of Foresight

• Products
• Build visions of the future
• Provide anticipatory intelligence to system
  actors
• Set general research directions
• Inform policy and public debates
• Inform funding and investment priorities
• Process
• Increase involvement of system actors in decision
  making
• Increase understanding and change mindsets
• Build trust between participants
• Aid collaboration and highlight interdisciplinary
  opportunities
• Build networks and strengthen communities

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The need for Systemic Foresight

• Problems of Foresight, which led to the
  development of the SFM
• Largely deterministic
• Functionalist
• Not well adapted to cope with complex living
  systems these involve diverse and uncertain
  structures, and behaviours typical of the STEEPV
  set, where pre-determined, systematic, procedural
  and prescriptive practices simply fail
• The aim is to deepen our understanding of the
  present and the future of linked STEEPV systems
  through promoting conceptual and flexible
  thought processes

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SFM Context, Content Process
Social system
Technological system
Economic system
Ecological system
Political system
Values
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Systemic Foresight Methodology

• Systemic understanding
• Creates shared understanding and mutual
  appreciation of issues at hand
• Systems synthesis and modelling
• The input from scanning is synthesised into
  conceptual models of the situations involved in
  the real world
• Systemic analysis and Selection
• Analyses the alternative models of the future and
  prioritises them, through intensive
  negotiations among system actors and
  stakeholders, to create an agreed model of the
  future
• System transformation
• Establishes the relationship between the future
  and the present for a change programme
• Systemic action
• Creates plans to inform present day decisions for
  immediate change to provide structural and
  behavioural transformations

SFM as a conceptual base for the design,
organisation and deployment of Foresight
exercises
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Hindsight

• Prokaryotic life
• Feynmans (1959) the future of miniaturisation
  .
• Without changing the basic format through the
  developments in technology and breakthroughs in
  science
• Silicon technology (1988 present)
• From 1 micron feature size to 0.1
• High capacity HD today 10s of GBs lt2 coin in
  size
• More recently, evolution of a stream of new
  scientific nano-disciplines involving
  nano-biology and stem cells
• What about the future?

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Systemic Foresight for Nanotechnology
What is possible?
What is feasible?
Science Ecology
Technology Economics
Nano- science
Systemic Foresight
Nano- technology
What is desirable?
Socioeconomics Politics Values
Nano- artifacts
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SFM - STEEPV
S
T
V
E
P
E
Systemic Foresight
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Epilogue systemic foresight

• Systemic Foresight reveals the emergence of
  nano-artifacts to be full of complex situations
  relating to policies for investment science and
  education risk governance ethics capacity
  building and impact assessment
• In situations, these matters may look independent
  but are highly interlinked and interdependent,
  requiring appreciation of their context and
  content
• The future of nano-artifacts and their legal and
  ethical influences on society involves a
  multi-dimensional outlook covering the entire
  rate controlling factors involving STEEPV set

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Panarchy - HollingsEcosystem functions and flow
of events
?
K
conservation
r to K Slow accumulation and transformation of
resources, predictable as it develops maximises
production and accumulation growth and
stability fixed, static
O to ? Shorter periods that create opportunities
for innovation unpredictable and highly
uncertain maximises invention and reassortment
change and variety dynamic
r to K
reorganisation
potential
O to ?
release
exploitation
r
O
connectedness / controllability
MIoIR, Univ. of Manchester
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Illustration 1 Rocos antcipated evolution of
nano-artifacts for 2020

• Phase 3 4 New cycle of evolution in the
  nano-field well beyond 2020 and 2050 or later
• Low probability begin to emerge
• What is possible, feasible and desirable as
  nano-artifacts evolve remain controversial
• The emphasis on matters of governance and
  regulations before the artifacts are available
  then becomes a troublesome proposition (Roco)
  precaution

?
K
conservation

• Phase 1 Hindsight
• Phase 2 Nano-artifacts are
• Well known conceptually
• Believed to be desirable, may be scientifically
  possible, but may not yet be Technologically
  feasible

PHASE 12
Renewal
Accumulation
reorganisation
PHASE 34
release
exploitation
Growth
Restructuring
r
O
connectedness / controllability
Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. (2008a).
Appreciation and anticipation in the evolution of
nano-field a case for systemic foresight ,
Paper presented in the Managing the uncertainty
of nanotechnologies Conference, 22-23 May 2008,
Rovigo
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Critical (Emancipatory) Systems Thinking Ulrich
(1998)

• Lessons for Systemic Foresight
• Motivation
• 1. Wide source of opinion
• 2. Aggregation of opinion, anonymity access
• 3. Achievement of inclusivity
• Power
• 4. Reflection of interests
• 5. Operational effectiveness
• 6. Challenging/conflicting interests
• Knowledge
• 7. Emphasis on all opinions
• 8. Valuing knowledge and know-how
• 9. Dynamic and relevant implementation
• Legitimation
• 10. Representation of the entire population
  affected
• 11. Criticism and argumentation of special
  interests
• 12. Involving the views of decision makers and
  those affected by them

Loveridge, D. and Saritas, O. (2008b). Reducing
the democratic deficit in institutional
foresight a case for CST in Nano-field, Paper to
be presented in the FTA 2008 Conference, 16-17
October 2008, Seville
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Thank you!

• Ozcan Saritas Denis LoveridgeOzcan.Saritas_at_manc
  hester.ac.uk / Denis.Loveridge_at_manchester.ac.uk