Impacts of Climate Change and their mitigation

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Impacts of Climate Changeand their mitigation

• Bill Menke
• October 6, 2005

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Most of this material drawn fromIPCC REPORTS

• Ive saved a copy at my web site
• www.ldeo.columbia.edu/users/menke/data/ipcc/index.
  html
• You should read the technical summaries at
  least !

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Note that global temperatureis predicted to
increase by as much as little as1 deg Cor as
much as5 deg Cin the next centurywith most
models in the2-4 deg Crange
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Current Temperature Distribution
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Note that 5 deg C is one color band
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Note that 5 deg C is one color band
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• Impact 1
• Spread of
• Malaria

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India deaths in 1947 800,1000 deaths in 1986
1000
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At what temperatures is malaria present hard
to control ?
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• Impact 2
• Reduction in
• Arctic Ecosystems

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Tundra
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Tundra
What temperature Boundary controls The southern
extent Of Tundra ?
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• Impact 3 Reduction
• in River Runoff

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Hydrologic Cycle Note land precipitation of
108,000 km3 And that 58 evaporates, with the
rest, 46,000 km3, flowing in rivers. But only
about 5000 km3 are usable for agriculture
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3 deg C
Typical land, about 1 meter (40) of
precipitation, 42 (17) is runoff Now increase
temperature 3 deg C (5.3 F), runoff decreases to
14.5, a drop of 15 percent
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Model that takes into account overall climate
changes also Predicts regions (e.g. in red) where
runoff is down by 15
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Food From Water

• Caloric need 2000 kCal per person per day
• Grain 4000 kCal per kg
• 6 Billion People on earth
• Water needed to grow that grain 1 m3 per kg
• Putting it all together, agriculture requires
• 1100 km3 of water per year
• as long as were all vegetarians

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• So to feed a world of vegetarians requires
• about
• 1/5 of the available runoff
• a 15 drop in runoff is a very big deal