AgentBased Models for Integrated Urban Water Management

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Agent-Based Models for Integrated Urban Water
Management

• Arlex Sanchez Torres
• Promoter
• Prof. Dimitri Solomatine , PhD
• Mentors
• Z. Vojinovic, PhD
• Prof. R.K. Price, PhD

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The Challenge
Urbanization growth, on one hand is considered as
a symbol of economical development, brings out on
the other hand more complexity and stress to the
natural systems and resources. There is a call
for innovative thinking and redesign of the urban
water cycle to achieve environmental
sustainability. SWITCH, 2006.
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To achieve a holistic analysis and assessment of
effects of measures, an integrated modeling
approach is required. In this context, computer
based simulation models are accepted planning
tools
Huge Amount of Data Data Management Summarized
and Presented Clearly Essential
Information Decision Support System
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Objectives (Arlex)

• Explore the use of agent-based technology in
  urban water management
• How to apply the concepts and principles of
  emergence in the development of urban areas
• How to consider random influences on urban
  developments. Risks and opportunities.
• Application of optimization procedures for the
  calibration of agent-based models.

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Agent based simulation (ABS)

• The Agent-based simulation (ABS) is a simulation
  technique that provides a way for a direct
  representation of phenomena
• Agent can represent human individuals,
  organizations, social institutions
• ABS begin with the creation of agents and
  environment and finish with the analysis of the
  observed collective behavior
• Agent based models consist of dynamically
  interacting rule based agents
• The systems within which they interact can
  therefore create complexity like that which we
  see in the real world.
• The fundamental feature of an agent is the
  capability of the component to make independent
  decisions

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ABMS tools are not developed to forecast the
exact state of the modeled system, but to
explore how the system will evolve in view of a
possible future. Nostrum-DSS - 2006
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FIRMABAR simulator

• The FIRMABAR is an agent based simulator for
  integrated freshwater assessment
• Has been developed and successfully apply to the
  metropolitan region of Barcelona and Valladolia
• Provide policy makers with additional tool to
  evaluate alternative water policies in different
  scenarios
• Base on water cycle and the role that agents play
  in it

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ABSS approach to the system

• The simulator has been design as 2 coupled model
• Territorial model
• Represent physical and urban space
• Base on cellular automata
• Social model
• Represent the elemental agent (family)

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The world cellular water game
Valkering et al 2007 University of Maastricht
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Net Logo Examples
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Peoples behavior during flood
Hossein, New Casttle 2007
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GIS - Functionality
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Comparing with 1D-2D physically base model
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Models for Urbanization - Tijuana Bordertowns
model
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Models for Urbanization - Cities
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Procedural modeling of cities
Lechner et all, 2004
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Initial Conditions At t 0 Layout of the
initial water distribution network and
performance information of the system (Projected)
At t 5 years (ie) New Developments are build,
new layout for the network (new developments and
densification of old) assess performance.
At t 20 years (end simulation) Performance of
the projected system? Impacts?
Intermediate step needs a loop to optimize the
system (capacity of pipes, tanks, etc)
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Initial Conditions Land use, socio-economics,
regulations At t 0
Layout of the initial drainage network and
performance information of the system (flooding)
Simulation at t n New developments and
densification of existing. Several options for
the drainage system depending on the new
environmental impacts.
Optimization to find the best possible set of
solutions for the projected city.
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• The outcome of the simulation should produce some
  sensible results of the projected urban future
  and scenarios.
• The agents can decide where to lay-down new pipes
  and extend the water distribution and drainage
  network and add special features like tanks,
  pumps, ponds, WWTP, etc.
• That will allow the construction of scenarios to
  evaluate the environmental impact and/or
  sustainability of the new city and the
  evolution of the water related infrastructure
  in the city.
• Incorporate environmental rules that affect urban
  growth, water availability, water quality, etc.

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The Great Dublin Area EU Project
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Input Urban land use map and numerical models
of urban water systems
The Framework
Suitability maps Considering, elevation,
existing infrastructure, water bodies, water
quality, water availability.
Feedback sub-model
New developments (transitional potential)
Accessibility map Road network, Pipe networks,
State natural streams.
Regional model Socio-economics, regulations,
master plans, legislation.
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The Feedback Model Dynamic Suitability
New Developments
New Suitability
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Neighborhood and Rules
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1978
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Water Pressure Map overlay
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JRC EC, 2005
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Next Steps

• Develop and test with small case study (continue)
• Integration with Water Models
• Start Belo Horizonte Case, Birmingham