Web Commerce :

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Web Commerce Quick Way To Get Rich, or Another
Set Of Performance Issues
Dr. Thomas E. Bell TBell_at_RVNDL.Com
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Todays Web-Based Commerce?

Orders
Orders
Product Descriptions
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The Reality of the Internet User Space

• 45 of US families have computers
• 33 of US adults use the internet somewhere
• 22 of US adults use the internet at home
• 4.5 hours of internet use on average for adults
  with internet access
• Source CNBC 9/6/99

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The Reality of Retail e-Commerce Top 5 Problems
Experienced Holiday 1999 Shopping Season

• 64 Item was out of stock
• 40 Product was not delivered on time
• 38 Paid too much for delivery
• 36 Connection or download problem
• 28 Didnt receive confirmation or status
  report
• on purchase

Source Andersen Consulting cited by CNET
Special Report (2/4/00) The Truth About
Shopping Online
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What people learned is that it costs a lot more
to build a brand from scratch than people
thought, and secondly building an e-commerce
infrastructure is not as cheap as people
thought. Rick Neely, interim CEO, CFO, and Sr.
VP of former e-tailer Beyond.com
Source InfoWorld, 5/26/2000
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Some Not-So-Easy Issues

• Security
• Inventory Status Product Identification
• Credit Verification
• Fulfillment
• Returns
• Voice To Handle User Problems
• Exploiting Multiple Delivery Channels
• Performance

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According To Network Computing
You're entrenched behind your firewall and you
peer across a battlefield strewn with ruined Web
servers. The enemy is out there somewhere,
waiting for the slightest breach in your defenses
to turn you into the next media event "Foo.Com's
Web site was hacked last night. For six hours,
customers were unable to access its electronic
catalog. Foo's spokesperson stated that the
database server was not reached by the hackers,
but that projected sales losses could reach 6
million." The media calls that a hack? Sounds
more like a frontal attack or at least a border
skirmish. We must stop playing with words This
is not just malicious behavior--this is an act of
electronic war. Are you prepared to defend your
domain? Source A HAC Is a Hack Is a
Haq? Network Computing (online), 9/6/99
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Firewall Countermeasure
Firewall
Scans, Invalid Packets, Penetration Attempts
Distributed Denial Of Service
Personal Information
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Countermeasures
FIX TRADE-OFF Filter at router 5
percent to 20 percent performance
hit Intrusion-detection Frequent false alarms
software Load-balancing product Drop slow
connections from legitimate
users Specialized firewalls that 50 percent more
expensive than perform DoS filtering
general-purpose firewalls
Source The Cost of Security Internet Week, p
1, 2/21/00
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Inventory Status Product Identification
Inventory Control
Xact Proc
Inventory Control
Web Serving
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Inventory Status Product Identification Issues
For Web Retailing

• If in-house supplier, need to have comprehensive
  identification system for evolving product lines
• If outside supplier, need to track any
  re-numbering of products (including variants)
• If multiple suppliers, need to reconcile between
  different identification schemes (SKUs).
  Variants may be indicated by unusual schemes.
• Returns need to be tracked to correct supplier
• Billing by product must be tracked by supplier

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Credit Verification
Inventory Control
Xact Proc
Credit Card Center
Web Serving
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Credit Verification Challenge
Verifier Times Out
Retailer Must Time Out
Holiday 99 Experience
Frequent
Acceptable
Intuition
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100
80
60
40
120
140
160
180
0
Seconds After Clicking An Order
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Fulfillment
Fulfillment Center
Inventory Control
Xact Proc
Credit Card Center
Web Serving
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Fulfillment Processes

• Sales Order Processing
• Picking List Creation
• Warehouse Management
• Distribution Management
• Purchase Order Processing
• A/R, A/P, G/L

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Returns
Source CNET Special Reports (2/4/00) The
Truth About Shopping Online using list from
Patricia Seybold Group
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Voice To Handle User Problems
Call Center (ACD)
Fulfillment Center
Inventory Control
Xact Proc
Credit Card Center
Web Serving
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Normal Calling Intensity
Checking DDA Balance
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Checking Fund Balance
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Call Center (ACD)
1-800 Trunk Group
1-800 Trunk Group

• Determine required service level in terms of
  probability of blockage
• Determine average call duration during busy
  hour
• Determine effective number of trunks (lines) with
  erlang distribution (available on internet as
  well as in tables) for each trunk group, add them
• Measure switch processing capability (CPU-based)
  for call set-up
• Determine capacity for handling traffic

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Exploiting Multiple Delivery Channels
Call Center (ACD)
Fulfillment Center
Inventory Control
Xact Proc
Credit Card Center
Print Mail Center
Web Serving
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Print Mail Center
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LOB Demand Projection
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Dist. Of Gross Load To Spec. Items
Project Loading Based On History And
Distribution Of Envelope Sizes And Other Chars.
Recent Levels Of Productivity
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Assumed Schedules
Project Capacity For Each Machine By Appln
Type And Active Time
Rec. Level Of Non- Prod. Time
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Project Machine Requirements For Loads Capacity
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Performance If Youre At All Serious
Database Servers
Web Servers
Firewalls
InterNet
Browsers
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Core Web Service

• Implement at least 3 times maximum anticipated
  capacity, be ready for 10 times.
• For firewall, plan for CPU and I/O. More
  importantly, plan for total number of outstanding
  interactions (not active users).
• Determine response to invalid IP addresses,
  buffer over-runs, incomplete packets. Plan
  capacity for outage cases. (They happen
  repeatedly.)
• Try to obtain distribution of activity across
  users some are far more active than others.
  Assume very uneven distribution of users.
• Correlate activity with outside (driving) events
  and look for chance of overlaps.

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Recommendations

• Start learning about the technologies surrounding
  the classical mainframe processing complex
  before you find that less quantitative people are
  taking over.
• Plan for outrageous growth rates in technological
  requirements (e.g., 30 to 60 per year).
• Deal with the extreme peaks that arise from
  ultimate customers unscheduled behavior (like
  logging on during a TV advertisement).
• Take great care using performance data from new
  technologies vendors add features before
  ensuring that the data are useful (or even
  present).
• Determine how performance problems in one area
  may lead to overloads (requiring extra capacity)
  in other areas.

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Implications

• Many business processes fall outside the
  internet, and they need to use Information
  Technology too
• e-Commerce wont replace conventional commerce,
  so integration is critical
• Customers will go elsewhere if reliability or
  performance is inadequate (another site is just a
  click away)
• The technology is far more complex than indicated
  by IPO advocates on TV
• Thorough, long-term planning to minimize excess
  capacity is a faulty approach given the rate of
  change

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