Professor M'Falkenmark

1
Sustainable development and
innovationWater, ecohydrology and energyEPFL,
Lausanne 3 March 2009Food and environmental
sustainability The water perspective_________
________________

• Professor M.Falkenmark
• Stockholm International Water Institute
• Stockholm Resilience Center

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Core messages__________________________

• essential to bridge ecological protection and
  hydrological processes
• future hunger eradication fundamental issue by
  literally consuming water
• waters movement through the landscape gives it
  integrating capacity

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SOME WATER BASICS__________________
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Environmental sustainability_____________________
_____

• Non-undermining of the life support system
• What role does freshwater play?
• BLOODSTREAM OF THE BIOSPHERE

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Water at the core of the life support system

• bloodstream of the biosphere
• life elexir for human society

water common denominator
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Water appears in two forms_______________________

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Global water budget_______________________
Precipitation 100
65
35
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Water has many parallel functions
aquatic ecosystems
health
habitat
body functions
waterfunctions
waterfunctions
carrier
erosion, pollutant transport
socio-economic production
income raising energy (hydropower, cooling)
biomassproduction
food, timber, biofuels
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Ecosystem protection__________________________

• WHY - fundamental roles in life support
  system
• WHAT - specific landscape component
• - ecosystem functioning/ resilience
• HOW - determinant identification
• - minimum requirement
• integrated catchment management offers a
  way
• / ILWRM

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SOCIETY AND WATER
________________________
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Society is genuinely dependent on freshwater
____________________________

• blue water withdrawal may be used in two main
  ways
• some uses are throughflow-based use,
• sending return flow
  back
• - municipal use
• - industry
• other uses are consumptive
• depletive water use
  - - food, biofuels
• - timber, carbon sequestration

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Hydroclimatic differences________________________
__
Majority of poor and undernourished /ca 1 bln ca
450 million rainfed water constrained
agricultural production
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A basic development obstacle water variability
______________________

• in water-constrained economies
• hydrologic variability
• complicates food production

December rainfall
Cereal yield
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Water and economic development___________________
_____

• overcoming hydrological variability basic
• -gt minimum WATER SECURITY
• -- three categories of countries
• those that have harnessed their hydrology
• industrial countries
• those that are hampered by their hydrology
• emerging
  economies
• those that remain hostages of their
  hydrology
• low income countries

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CORE CHALLENGE global food security_____________
___
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Water requirements for food_____________________
______

• food production requires 70 times more water than
  household use

3000 kcal/p d 20 anim prot.
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Food preferences with rising income______________
____________
rich in meat
Water requirement m3/cap day
global average
vegetarian diet
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Food production______________________
2050

• water needed to produce food required HUGE
• irrigation cannot contribute
  much
• SSA small rivers ephemeral
• SAs river basins closing
• ? rest to be covered by green water/soil
  moisture
• can improve water productivity
• can expand cropland

Green revolution
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Overall situation 2050_________________________
_ Blue green water
Scenario A2 Slow fertility decline
under 1300 m3/p yr red orange
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Large water losses to harvest in dryland
agriculture ________________________

• Out of crop water required
• only 90 as rain
• only 60 infiltrates
• only 40 stays in root zone
• only 1/3 of that taken up by roots
• rest evaporates

Blue water generation
Infiltrated and percolated
gree
iin
g
gre
Stored in root zone
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Country-based water deficits 2050________________
____________
22
Country level options_________________________
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Water deficit reduction overview
_________________________

• Limited population growth (UN rather than A2
  scenario) 2000 km3/yr
• Water productivity improvement 2220
  
• Irrigation expansion 430
• Food import from water surplus countries 750
  
• Cropland expansion into non-permanent pastures
  130
• Unresolved ultimate water deficit 1270
  

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• TRANSNATIONAL RIVER BASINS
• _________________________

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Transnational upstream/downstream linkages -
semiarid basins _______________________________
upstream runoff generation
00time zero 00 forseeable
future time
70
53-gt15
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Agreement flexibility living with change
____ ___________________________
Euphr/Tigr
DEVEL.GOAL
Limit upstr consumpt. use
Attention to cons. use upstr
Limit downstr requirem.
Nile
Niger
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Semiarid transnational basin dilemma____________
______________

• growing populations
• food demands of new middle class increase
  quickly with income
• food security essential to avoid unrest
• institution-building essential but takes time
• - development of shared vision principles,
• - permanent water commission
  interacting heads of
  state,
• flexible transnational river basin agreement

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• BALANCING
• ________________________

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Green-blue resources awareness
__________________________
Kenya
India
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More consumptive use upstream-gt less blue water
downstream ______________________________
Green water for Terrestrial Ecosystem services
Blue water for Aquatic Ecosystem services
Environmental Water Flows
Coastal water
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Ecosystem protection imperative_________________
_________________

• WHY - fundamental roles in life support
  system
• WHAT - specific landscape component
• - ecosystem functioning/ resilience
• HOW - determinant identification
• - minimum requirement
• integrated catchment management offers a way
  
• / IWRM

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Catchment as a base for trade-off
striking________________________

• ILWRM to orchestrate for compatibility
• land use water use ecosystem sustainability

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• CONCLUSIONS
• __________________________

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Make best use of local rain
_________________________

• resource rainfall green rainfed plant prod
• blue munic, ind,
  irrig
• -gt make best use of local rain
• preparedness for population growth
• economic development
• increasing expectations
• increasing food needs
• altered inter-country balance

35
Food security huge water
requirements____________________meeting water
deficiency - irrigation - limited potential -
rainfed - plenty of greennet deficiency
3260 km3/yr/ 7 bln - by import some 40
- too poor to pay 60 -gt horisontal
expansion - to where? not much grazing
land unresolved 1270 km3/yr
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Balancing against environmental
sustainability______________________

• balancing - upstream/downstream
• - green/blue
• - humans/ecosystems
• ILWRM tool
• environmental sustainability constraints
• -gt specify water determinants