Bulgarian Academy of Sciences

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Bulgarian Academy of Sciences NATIONAL
INSTITUTE OF METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY
Role and Involvement of Bulgarian Meteorologists
in the Implementation of the UNCCD at National
Level (focusing on art. 16-17 of
UNCCD) Vesselin Alexandrov Poiana Brashov, 2004
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Scientific and Technical Cooperation
? Article 16 Information collection, analysis
and exchange ? collection, analysis and
exchange of relevant short term and long term
data and information to understand better and
assess the processes and effects of drought to
help early warning and advance planning for
periods of adverse climatic variations
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• Information collection, analysis exchange

? systematic weather observations and data
collection
stations in north-western Bulgaria
Hydrological stations Rain-gauge
stations Synoptic stations Climatic stations
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• Information collection, analysis exchange

? systematic weather observations and data
collection ? use WMO compatible standards and
systems ? encompass relevant weather data and
stations (but a decreasing trend in stations
some other problems - data quality) ? use and
disseminate modern technology for weather data
collection transmission (new automated stations
but problems with some instruments, e.g. Tmin)
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• Information collection, analysis exchange

? weather/drought analysis ? daily weather
conditions and forecasts (in media TV, radio,
newspapers, web, etc.) ? weekly and monthly
conditions and forecasts (in media TV, radio,
newspapers, web, etc.) e.g. monthly weather
bulletin (www.meteo.bg) ? annual and climate
analysis (in media as well as research and
public-related papers)
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• Information collection, analysis exchange

? data and information exchange ? link/provide
national weather data to national and global
information sources/organizations such as - WMO
World Meteorological Organization - Ministry
of Environment and Water Ministry of
Agriculture and Forestry, National Statistical
Institute - etc. (some restrictions and
charges are applied)
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• Information collection, analysis exchange

? trying to ensure that the collection, analysis
and exchange of information address the needs of
local communities and those of decision makers,
with a view to resolving specific drought
problems ? Meteorological Expert Council at the
Ministerial Permanent Commission for Defense of
Population in case of Disasters and Accidents ?
expert assessments on drought for the Parliament
(e.g. in 2000), etc.
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Scientific and Technical Cooperation
? Article 17 Research and development ?
contribute to increased knowledge of the
processes leading to drought and the impact of
factors, both natural and human, with a view to
mitigating the effects of drought, and achieving
improved (e.g. agricultural) productivity as well
as sustainable use and management of resources
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• Research and development

? national and international projects (and many
project proposals) on assessing drought and its
related impacts on various sectors (such as
agriculture, forestry, water resources, human
health, etc.) ? Drought in Bulgaria ?
Drought in Bulgaria A Contemporary Analog of
Climate Change ? Assessment of Climate Change
Impacts on the Elements of the Hydrological Cycle
in SE Europe ? Adaptation of Efficient Water
Criteria in Marginal Regions of Europe under
Climate Change
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A book on drought (2003) Drought in Bulgaria A
Contemporary Analog of Climate Change. Natural,
economic and social dimension of the 1982-1994
drought
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• Research and development

? dissemination of research results on drought
as well as related impacts and adaptation/mitigati
on measures ? publications in scientific
journals ? research conferences, congresses ?
media (TV, radio, newspapers) ? seminars (e.g.
at the Educational Center in the BG weather
service)
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2000
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Anomalies of annual precipitation in Bulgaria,
relative to 1961-1990
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Annual precipitation (in of the normal
(1961-1990)) in Bulgaria, 2000
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Annual precipitation trends (1901-2000) by
applying the coefficient of Spearman at
probability level of 95 red arrows -
insignificant increasing trend blue arrows -
insignificant decreasing trend
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93
00
85
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Anomalies of precipitation during the warm-half
of the year (April-September), relative to
1961-1990
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NO irrigated
irrigated
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Fluctuations of maize grain yield and
precipitation in July and August, averaged for
non-irrigated stations in Bulgaria
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Winter precipitation trends (1901-2000) brown
arrows - statistically significant increasing
trend red arrows - insignificant increasing
trend blue arrows - insignificant decreasing trend
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De Martonne index for Danube Plain and Thracian
Lowland (Koleva et al., 2004)
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Dry spells (10 and 15 days) during the potential
crop growing season (gt10?C) in Sadovo (a) and
Kjustendil (b)
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Classification (in ) of the years (1902-1994)
extr. dry, dry, normal, wet in North Bulgaria
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Anomalies of annual river runoff in Bulgaria,
relative to 1961-1990 (e.g. Alexandrov and
Genev, 2003)
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annual runoff - 20 000 million m3 2200 artificial
lakes (1980s) - 7 000 million m3 from 1952 to
1985 - from 150 to 1700 million m3 in 1986,
Sofia and surroundings - 260 million m3
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Results of the Mann's test in some streams of
southeastern Bulgaria (Lizama and Koleva-Lizama,
2000)
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Danube basin runoff well 423
(e.g. Alexan-drov and Genev, 2002)
Mediterranean basin runoff spring 59
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Anomalies of maize-growing seasonal number of
irrigation applications (a), and irrigation
totals (b)
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Anomalies of annual air temperature and
precipitation over the Balkan Peninsula, relative
to 1961-1990.
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Precipitation (in mm) in July (left) and August
(right), 2000 over the region of the Balkan
Peninsula
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Positive (left) and negative (right) NAO phases
and related influence on weather in Europe
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NAO index, December-March, 1864-2002
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Relation between winter precip and NAO i.,
1949-2000
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(MAGICC/SCENGEN) ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual
air temperature in Europe during the 2050s (A2
SRES emission scenario), relative to 1961-1990
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ECHAM4 GCM scenario of annual precipitation in
Europe during the 2050s (A2 SRES emission
scenario), relative to 1961-1990
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Climate Change Scenarios for Bulgaria
IPCC A2 emission scenario
GCM simulated change change of air temperature
(X) and precipitation (Y) for winter (a) and
summer (b) in Bulgaria for the 2100, relative to
1961-1990
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HaDCM2 and ECHAM4 climate change scenarios of
monthly air temperature (left) and precipitation
(right) in Sandanski (south Bulgaria) during the
2100s (?2 emission scenario)
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Maize yield for current climate and GCM scenarios
direct CO2 effect
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Scenarios for the future development of the
hydro-processes in Bulgaria (e.g. Alexandrov and
Genev, 2002)
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Climate Change Scenarios for the Balkan
Peninsula
IPCC A2 emission scenario
GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and
precipitation (Y) for summer in Serbia (a) and
Romania (b) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990
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Climate Change Scenarios for the Balkan
Peninsula
IPCC A2 emission scenario
GCM simulated change of air temperature (X) and
precipitation (Y) for summer in Greece (c) and
Turkey (d) for the 2100, relative to 1961-1990
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CONCLUSIONS
? In the region of the Balkan Peninsula ? from
the beginning of the 1980s a tendency to
slight warming is observed again ? this trend
is expected to continue in the 21st century
? precipitation deficit is observed during
the last two decades ? winter
precipitation is expected to increase till
the end of the 21st century ? precipitation
during the warm-half year (summer) is
projected to decrease
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CONCLUSIONS
? Strategies were recommended (in 2001) by the
Bulgarian Government ? saving water
resources ? overcoming water-supply crisis ?
securing water for irrigation and
efficiency ? formation of knowledge and sense
to water resources saving